As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for his upcoming visit to Ukraine, German MP Jurgen Hardt, a prominent member of the CDU and its foreign policy spokesperson, offers crucial insights into the geopolitical dynamics shaping the global landscape. Speaking with Rudroneel Ghosh, Hardt addresses a range of critical issues, from the ongoing war in Ukraine to the broader role of India in international affairs.
Ceasefire in Ukraine:
With the Ukraine conflict now in its third year, Hardt emphasizes that a clear path to peace remains elusive. “The curious thing about the conflict is that no one is talking about what Russia has to give for peace,” he points out. Current discussions focus solely on demanding that Russia respect Ukraine’s borders and cease its attacks. According to Hardt, this approach leaves Ukraine with a clear but potentially weak negotiating stance. To compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate, the international community must create conditions that make failure a tangible risk for him. “For example, the loss of Crimea could be a significant blow,” Hardt suggests. He believes that Putin might then declare a false victory to exit the war and that the global community must navigate this situation to secure a lasting peace. “We have to ensure Putin believes that failure is a real possibility,” Hardt asserts.
EU-Russia Relations:
On the topic of European relations with Russia, Hardt reflects on the failed strategy of engaging with Russia to stabilize it. The EU had previously sought to integrate Russia through economic partnerships and energy trade, aiming to manage its instability. However, Hardt acknowledges that this strategy has been thwarted by Putin’s rejection of democratic norms and the rule of law. “Putin fears the rule of law because it challenges his oligarchical system,” he explains. While future relations with a potentially reformed Russia might be possible, engagement with the current regime appears unfeasible. “Russia has consistently avoided taking opportunities for closer cooperation with the EU,” he notes.
Impact of US Elections:
Discussing the implications of potential future US presidencies, Hardt addresses the prospect of Donald Trump returning to office. He recalls the challenges faced during Trump’s previous term, noting that Trump’s unpreparedness led to delayed demands on Europe. “If Trump returns, we should expect a more competitive scenario from day one,” Hardt warns. Despite the difficulties, he suggests that Europe should focus on negotiating areas where mutual benefits can be secured. Hardt reflects on past successes, such as the deal on soybean imports, as a model for future negotiations. He also highlights missed opportunities to demonstrate the benefits of President Joe Biden’s cooperative approach compared to Trump’s confrontational style.
China’s Economic Policies:
Addressing the issue of China’s weaponization of economic interdependencies, Hardt describes Chinese trade policy as increasingly assertive. However, he also notes that China’s domestic challenges, such as economic instability and demographic issues, might deter it from disruptive actions like attacking Taiwan. “China needs good trade relations to maintain its social contract,” Hardt says. He advocates for a coordinated approach among the US, G7, Germany, and allies like India to encourage China to make compromises. Hardt emphasizes the importance of reciprocity in trade relationships and suggests that international investments should be scrutinized to prevent China from acquiring strategic assets in case of project failures.
India’s Geopolitical Role:
Finally, Hardt addresses India’s role in global geopolitics. As one of the top five economies, India, along with Germany, should take a more proactive stance in international affairs. While respecting India’s traditional neutral stance and its roles in BRICS and G20, Hardt urges India to speak out clearly against violations of international law. “Neutrality should not prevent a government from condemning breaches of international law,” he asserts. Hardt calls for India to continue its balanced approach while firmly addressing violations such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In summary, Jurgen Hardt’s perspective underscores the complexities of international relations and the need for active, principled engagement from major global players like India and Germany. His insights offer a roadmap for navigating the challenges of today’s geopolitical landscape while upholding international norms and fostering global stability.