Recent developments in Syria have opened a new chapter in the geopolitical struggle of the Middle East, with profound consequences for the region and beyond. For weeks now, analysts have observed Israel’s significant military success against Iran and its affiliated groups, effectively striking a blow comparable to the Six-Day War of 1967. The effects of this conflict could reshape the balance of power in the region, and the ongoing crisis in Syria is central to these shifts. Below are five quick observations that help put this moment into perspective.
1. Trump’s disastrous misreading of Syria’s strategic importance
The first notable statement comes from President-elect Donald Trump, who, in a social media post, declared, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” This declaration, however, misses the bigger picture. Syria is not just a small regional issue but a keystone in the broader Middle Eastern puzzle. Its collapse has created new power vacuums that neighbouring states and global powers are quick to exploit. With U.S. troops stationed in eastern Syria, Washington cannot afford to simply ignore these developments. Instead, it must define its interests and work strategically to shape the future of Syria, as everyone else in the region is already doing.
2. The U.S. interests: Democracy in iran and managing middle eastern power struggles
The U.S. has significant interests in how the situation in Syria unfolds. The most pressing is how it could trigger a wave of pro-democracy uprisings in Iran. The internal power struggles within Iran are already evident: moderate figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are at odds with the hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guards. The loss of Iranian influence in Syria, compounded by Israel’s military victories over Iran, has left Tehran in a vulnerable position. This opens up a choice for Iran’s leadership—either rush to develop nuclear weapons to secure their regime or consider a deal with the U.S. that could see the dismantling of their nuclear ambitions. The U.S. must decide if it will play a role in this delicate transition.
3. The rebels in Syria: What do they truly want?
One of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the Syrian crisis is the identity and intentions of the various rebel factions that have emerged in the wake of the Assad regime’s collapse. Are they fighting for a pluralistic democracy or an Islamic state? Historically, Islamist factions have tended to dominate such movements, and the fear is that Syria may fall into the hands of extremist elements that undermine any hope of a democratic future. Nonetheless, some optimists hope that these factions might not be able to consolidate power, and that a more inclusive, democratic vision may prevail. The outcome remains uncertain, and the world watches to see which direction Syria will take.
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4. The post-assad future: A nightmare of militias?
The concern raised by Israeli news outlet Haaretz rings particularly true: “Post-Assad Syria Is in Danger of Being Run by Out-of-Control Militias.” Syria, like many other Middle Eastern countries, risks entering a chaotic and fractured post-regime period where no single force can maintain control. This is the troubling reality of many countries in the region: they are “too late for imperialism, but they failed at self-government.” This encompasses countries like Libya, Yemen, Iraq, and Somalia. While foreign powers are unlikely to intervene effectively, these countries have proven unable to govern themselves in a way that fosters stability or growth. Syria is a prime example of this ongoing crisis, and the situation is becoming more dire by the day.
5. A common enemy: The world of disorder
During a recent visit to Beijing and Shanghai, I found myself repeatedly telling my Chinese counterparts, “You think we are enemies. You are wrong. We have a common enemy: Disorder.” The rise of instability in Syria, along with the growing turmoil in other Middle Eastern nations, marks a new era where the international community must come together to fight disorder. The future of global diplomacy and cooperation will depend on how major powers, including the U.S. and China, address the challenge of disorder. How they manage the breakdown of states like Syria and Libya will define their ability to create a world of order.
In conclusion, Syria’s collapse is not just a local issue—it is a moment that could shape the course of Middle Eastern geopolitics for decades to come. The international community, led by the U.S., must take a proactive role in determining the region’s future. The stakes are higher than ever, and the implications for global security are profound.
