South Korea’s political landscape is in turmoil as the country braces for the Constitutional Court’s ruling on whether to formally unseat or reinstate impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. The liberal opposition-controlled parliament voted last Saturday to impeach Yoon following his controversial martial law imposition on December 3, suspending his presidential powers until the court’s decision. If Yoon is dismissed, a national election will need to be held within two months to elect his successor.
In response to the parliamentary vote, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, now acting president, has sought to reassure international allies and stabilise markets. Addressing a Cabinet Council meeting on Tuesday, Han vowed to work tirelessly to restore confidence in South Korea’s political stability. “I will continuously do my utmost to inform the international community that the Republic of Korea is fast regaining stability,” Han declared.
However, the road to clarity appears far from smooth. The country’s rival parties have begun squabbling over the key issue of filling three vacant seats on the Constitutional Court. For a final decision to be made on Yoon’s impeachment, the court’s nine-member panel requires at least six justices to back a ruling. With three seats vacant due to recent retirements, a unanimous decision in favour of impeachment would be needed to remove Yoon from office permanently.
The makeup of the court is itself a source of contention. Three of the nine justices are directly appointed by the president, while another three are nominated by the Supreme Court head, and the remaining three are nominated by the National Assembly. The three vacant seats should be filled by nominations from the National Assembly, with two seats going to the opposition Democratic Party and the third to Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP).
However, the current six-member panel remains divided on how to proceed. While the Democratic Party, which led the impeachment efforts against Yoon, has called for quick appointments to fill the vacancies, PPP floor leader Kweon Seong-dong objected to the proposal. Kweon argued that it would be inappropriate for acting President Han to appoint justices nominated by parliament, claiming that such authority is solely the president’s responsibility. This disagreement has deepened the already bitter political divide, with Kweon asserting that an acting president can only appoint court justices during a presidential vacancy, not when a president’s duties are merely suspended.
Many political observers believe that the current six-member court configuration could favour Yoon’s chances of being reinstated. It is widely thought that Yoon would need only one justice to vote against his impeachment to retain his position. Cheong Hyungsik, one of the six justices, is known to be a conservative who was directly appointed by Yoon, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the court’s ruling.
In response, the Democratic Party dismissed Kweon’s argument as nonsensical and pressed the PPP to honour a prior agreement to nominate three Constitutional Court justices. Party spokesperson Jo Seoung-lae accused the PPP of attempting to obstruct the constitutional trial, arguing that a swift resolution is essential for restoring public confidence in the judicial system.
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The Constitutional Court has up to 180 days to rule on Yoon’s fate, but time is quickly running out for the Democratic Party, which is keen on pushing for a rapid decision. The party hopes that should Yoon be ousted, its leader Lee Jae-myung would win a presidential by-election, though Lee himself faces his own legal challenges. If Lee’s conviction for election law violations is upheld, he may be barred from running, creating further complications in the political landscape.
The impeachment stemmed from Yoon’s controversial decision to impose martial law, which was the first such declaration in over 40 years. The decree, which involved the deployment of military troops to encircle parliament and prevent lawmakers from voting on the decree, sparked widespread protests and calls for his removal. Despite the imposition, lawmakers managed to overturn the decree, forcing Yoon’s Cabinet to lift it.
Yoon’s martial law declaration, reminiscent of past military-backed dictatorships, has sparked massive street protests, with his approval rating plummeting as a result. His defence minister, police chief, and several senior military commanders have been arrested for their roles in the enforcement of the martial law measures.
Supporters of Yoon fear that his removal from office would significantly weaken the conservative faction and likely lead to a loss in the upcoming presidential by-election, mirroring the outcome of 2017 when then-impeached conservative President Park Geun-hye was ousted over a corruption scandal. With the country’s political future hanging in the balance, South Korea’s court decision on Yoon’s fate is set to shape the nation’s direction in the coming months.
