December 22, 2024 – Washington, DC – The Biden administration has expressed growing concern that a weakened Iran could be inclined to pursue a nuclear weapon, according to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Speaking on Sunday, Sullivan warned that the ongoing setbacks to Iran’s regional influence, particularly after Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, could push Tehran to reconsider its nuclear ambitions.
In an interview with CNN, Sullivan explained that Iran’s conventional military capabilities had been significantly reduced following a series of Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian military assets, including missile factories and air defences. These attacks have come as part of Israel’s broader efforts to undermine Iranian-backed forces in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the fall of Iranian-aligned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Sullivan emphasised that these military setbacks, coupled with Iran’s diminishing regional influence, had led to a rise in voices within Iran questioning the nation’s nuclear strategy. “It’s no wonder there are voices (in Iran) saying, ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now … Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine,'” Sullivan remarked.
While Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is peaceful, there has been a notable expansion of uranium enrichment activities since the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, during the presidency of Donald Trump. The agreement had placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the easing of international sanctions. Since the U.S. withdrawal, Iran has progressively ramped up its nuclear enrichment, creating an escalating risk that Tehran could eventually develop the capability to build a nuclear weapon.
Sullivan acknowledged this growing threat, stating that there was a clear risk that Iran could abandon its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons. “It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now,” he said. “It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on.” He added that he had been in consultation with U.S. ally Israel, which shares similar concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme.
As the U.S. braces for a new administration under President-elect Donald Trump, Sullivan noted that Trump’s team would face critical decisions regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. With Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, there is speculation that he could revert to a more hardline stance, reminiscent of his previous tenure. This could include further sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry and other economic measures aimed at pressuring Tehran into compliance.
However, Sullivan also suggested that the current situation might present a unique opportunity for diplomacy. “Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term,” Sullivan proposed. The implication here is that Iran’s current weakened position – both militarily and politically – could create an opening for renewed negotiations.
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Despite the challenges, Sullivan pointed out that there remains a chance for the U.S. to engage diplomatically with Iran to prevent further nuclear escalation. “This is something we are working on closely,” he said, suggesting that while the risks are significant, the U.S. would continue to monitor the situation carefully.
The prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons has long been a source of regional and global concern. The international community, led by the U.S. and its allies, has sought to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, given the destabilising effect it could have on the Middle East. In recent years, Iran’s nuclear advancements have increasingly put pressure on global security dynamics, with nations like Israel expressing alarm over Iran’s intentions.
As Iran continues to face internal challenges, including economic hardship and protests, the future of its nuclear programme remains uncertain. The incoming Trump administration will likely have to decide whether to pursue a more aggressive stance, including ramping up sanctions or returning to diplomatic talks, in the hope of securing a long-term resolution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The situation remains fluid, and with multiple factors at play, the international community will continue to monitor Iran’s actions closely in the coming months, as the balance of power in the Middle East shifts further.
