New Year’s Eve proved a slow news night, as evidenced by the BBC leading with a story about Africa. The headline? The Ivory Coast and Senegal had asked longstanding French garrisons to pack up and leave, albeit diplomatically. These nations, despite their economic ties to France, followed Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali in ousting French troops who had been fighting jihadists. It was a striking development, marking a shift in West Africa’s geopolitical dynamics.
In 1995, during Prime Minister John Major’s entente cordiale with President Chirac, a meeting on Africa at the opulent Élysée Palace highlighted the differences in approach between Britain and France. The British delegation comprised anthropologists, NGOs, and civil servants, while the French contingent leaned heavily on military representatives, a reflection of their colonial priorities. The ongoing expulsions of French forces from West Africa now deal a historic blow to President Macron’s ambitions for global influence, signaling the waning of French dominance in its former colonies.
Into this vacuum have stepped Russia and China. Russia’s Wagner Group, infamous for its mercenary activities, has entrenched itself in nations like the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali, even facilitating atrocities. Recently rebranded as the Africa Corps under the Russian Ministry of Defense, Wagner’s influence extends from combat operations to resource extraction, including a lucrative gold trade worth an estimated £1 billion annually.
China, meanwhile, pursues a different tactic: economic engagement through infrastructure projects. Railways, roads, and industrial developments are central to its strategy, ensuring access to Africa’s rare minerals, metals, and agricultural resources. While their approaches differ, both Russia and China exploit the region’s pervasive corruption and governance challenges to their advantage.
In Mali, Wagner’s operations have intensified, focusing on combating jihadist factions like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, who target strategic towns such as Timbuktu and Gao. These groups, driven by ideological zeal and socio-economic desperation, thrive in regions plagued by poverty and state neglect. The Tuareg, a nomadic people facing the encroachment of the Sahara, have also entered this complex web of alliances and conflicts. Their sporadic cooperation with jihadists and allegations of support from external actors, including Ukraine, underscore the volatility of the region.
West Africa’s porous borders further exacerbate the situation. The region’s northern fringes are havens for arms smuggling and jihadist movements. Countries like Cameroon, Nigeria, and Chad are besieged by militant groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province, which exploit these vulnerabilities to sustain their operations. The resulting instability disrupts governance, impedes development, and fuels cycles of violence.
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Western engagement in Africa has waned, with aid budgets shrinking and priorities shifting. British and EU efforts to counter terrorism through training and advisory missions, particularly in Nigeria and the Chad Basin, have been valuable but insufficient. Simultaneously, climate change exacerbates the continent’s challenges, from food insecurity to displacement.
Africa’s demographic trajectory adds urgency to these issues. By 2050, the continent is projected to house 2.5 billion people, a quarter of the global population. This growth underscores the critical need for sustained, innovative engagement to address poverty, governance, and infrastructure deficits. Yet Western nations risk ceding influence to opportunistic powers like Russia and China, whose priorities do not align with fostering long-term stability.
The new scramble for Africa, driven by external powers seeking resources and influence, reflects historical patterns with modern twists. But amidst geopolitical rivalries, the human cost—ranging from exploitation to escalating conflict—remains stark. To counter this trend, renewed investment in peacebuilding, economic development, and governance reforms is imperative.
As the late President Carter’s vision for the Carter Center advocates: “Waging Peace, Fighting Disease, and Building Hope” must become the cornerstone of international policy towards Africa. Without such a shift, the continent’s vast potential risks being overshadowed by the agendas of authoritarian regimes and unchecked mercenary forces.
