The Government has swiftly responded to a report by the Daily Telegraph today, suggesting that up to one in 12 people living in London may be here illegally. Their response? Essentially, “nothing to see here.” A Home Office spokesperson dismissed the findings as “deeply flawed,” arguing that the research, which includes data from 2017, was outdated and based on limited information.
While it’s true that some of the data is several years old, the report offers a rare attempt at quantifying a serious issue: illegal migration, which touches on everything from community cohesion and utility demand to public services such as healthcare and education. Thames Water commissioned the report to estimate the hidden demand for its services. It relied on data from reputable sources like the London School of Economics, Pew Research, and Office for National Statistics, before using National Insurance records to estimate the number of “irregular” migrants in various London boroughs.
The report estimates that approximately a million people live illegally in the UK, with about 60% of them residing in London. While the Government is quick to dismiss these figures, they are merely the latest in a series of estimates about a growing issue. Former Deputy Chief Executive of the UK Border Agency, David Wood, suggested back in 2019 that 150,000 people settle illegally in the UK each year, a statistic that could paint an even more alarming picture.
Importantly, the report points out that the majority of people in the UK illegally initially arrived with valid visas — work, study, or visitor visas. While the Government has focused heavily on small boat crossings, this is not the biggest source of illegal migration. The real concern lies in the significant number of individuals who arrive legally but overstay their visas, remaining in the country without the necessary legal status.
Last year alone, nearly a million visas were issued for work, study, family reunification, and visits, with over 2 million visitor visas granted. While most people respect the terms of their visas, a small proportion overstay, and this adds up over time. However, there is little indication that the Border Agency is actively tracking the expiration of these visas or reminding individuals to leave once their visa term is up. The lack of a robust system to monitor arrivals and departures only fuels the problem.
The second issue raised by this report is the lack of official, updated estimates on illegal migration. The Government argues that it’s difficult to quantify the irregular population, a claim that has not been supported by any official numbers since 2005. However, with modern data analytics and immigration tracking systems, one has to wonder why this issue has not been prioritised. The real question may be that the Government simply does not want to know the true scale of the problem. If it did, it would need to take stronger action to deal with the growing number of overstayers.
The Conservative Government’s failure to address this issue is alarming, and their tendency to downplay or ignore the problem is becoming more evident. The issue is not simply about illegal boat crossings but about the millions who remain in the country after overstaying their legal terms. If the Government is so confident that the Thames Water report is wrong, it should be able to produce its own updated figures. Instead, it is choosing to silence discussion on the topic altogether.
Perhaps it’s time for the Government to take a page from the book of former Conservative leader Michael Howard, who suggested national identity cards as a way of addressing the issue of illegal immigration. Though widely mocked at the time, Howard’s proposal now seems prescient. With the right identification system in place, the Government could better track who is in the country legally and ensure those who overstay their visas are held accountable.
Instead of dismissing the issue, the Government should engage in an honest conversation about the scale of illegal migration. It’s time to stop pretending the problem doesn’t exist. The public deserves to know the facts, and the voters will certainly hold the Government to account. Whether they like it or not, this is a conversation that needs to be had.
Melanie McDonagh, a London Standard columnist, offers a perspective on a growing problem that cannot be ignored.
