Damascus, Syria – Senior Russian officials have arrived in Damascus for their first meeting with Syria’s new leadership, following the overthrow of Bashar Al Assad by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) on 8 December.
The delegation, which includes Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and special envoy Alexander Lavrentiev, is meeting with HTS leader Ahmad Al Shara amid growing instability in Syria. Their visit underscores Moscow’s shifting approach to a country where it once held significant influence but now faces an uncertain future.
Russia’s position in post-Assad Syria
For nearly a decade, Russia was Assad’s most powerful backer, intervening militarily in 2015 to prop up his regime. However, as HTS forces advanced towards Damascus last month, it became clear that another Russian rescue mission was either impossible or too costly. With Assad’s government now toppled, Russia’s two naval and air bases on Syria’s western coast remain under Moscow’s control, but its political influence has diminished.
A Western diplomat familiar with the situation described Al Shara’s approach as pragmatic, noting that he is aware of Russia’s remaining influence in Syria.
“He is in a power-consolidation phase and knows that the Russians can still do damage in Syria. He wants to keep them at bay,” the diplomat said, following a recent meeting with the HTS leader in Damascus.
Ongoing violence across Syria
The aftermath of Assad’s overthrow has been marked by widespread violence and shifting alliances. In the west, HTS forces have been conducting military operations to eliminate remnants of the old regime. Reports from activists in coastal areas suggest that dozens of people suspected of supporting Assad’s rule have been executed without trial.
In the north-east, a separate conflict is unfolding between Turkey-backed Syrian forces and the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF, a predominantly Kurdish militia, has long controlled vast areas of northern Syria, including oil-rich regions.
Following Assad’s departure to Moscow, Turkish-backed forces launched an offensive to drive the SDF out of key regions along the Euphrates River. On Tuesday, Turkish warplanes bombed the Qara Qurzaq bridge, a vital supply route for the SDF, in an effort to weaken their hold over Tishreen Dam and surrounding areas.
Turkey’s role and SDF resistance
Turkey’s Defence Ministry claimed on Tuesday that it had “neutralised” 13 Kurdish militants linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its Syrian offshoot, the YPG. However, Turkey provided no additional details regarding the operation or casualties.
The SDF, which played a key role in the US-led fight against ISIS, has suffered heavy losses in the ongoing offensive. According to an SDF official, the group is determined to continue resisting, but their supply lines are under threat from increased Turkish airstrikes.
“Our casualties have been heavy. So have theirs,” the official admitted.
The SDF also recently withdrew from parts of eastern Syria following an Arab uprising, which erupted in the wake of HTS’s takeover of Damascus.
HTS’s future in Damascus
HTS, once an Al Qaeda affiliate, has largely avoided direct involvement in the fighting in the east, reportedly as part of a strategy to improve ties with Western nations. Diplomatic sources suggest that HTS has even engaged in talks with the SDF regarding the future governance of eastern Syria.
A source within the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) noted that the HTS leadership’s position remains unclear.
“The Kurds are counting on HTS staying out of the battlefield, but I’m not sure they can rely on that,” the source warned.
Recent comments by Syria’s new Defence Minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, suggest that HTS is keeping its options open. While Abu Qasra confirmed that talks with the SDF are ongoing, he also stated that HTS is “ready for all probabilities.”
Tensions over Syria’s oil and natural resources
A major point of contention in the east is the status of Syria’s oil fields and natural resources. The Euphrates Valley, which is rich in oil, gas, and agricultural production, is now at the centre of disputes between HTS, the SDF, and tribal factions.
Before the war, Syria produced 200,000 barrels of oil per day, but production has now dropped by 75%. The east of Syria, which houses these crucial resources, also hosts the largest concentration of US forces in the country.
The US-backed SDF, while fighting Turkey-backed forces, has also historically cooperated militarily with the former Assad regime. Over the years, the SDF had even helped Assad’s forces reclaim parts of Aleppo. However, since Assad’s fall, reports suggest that the US has been in talks with HTS, sharing intelligence and exploring potential cooperation.
A new power struggle in Syria
With Assad gone, Syria is entering a new phase of conflict, where HTS, Turkey, the SDF, and Russia all have competing interests. Russia’s first visit to Damascus since the regime’s collapse highlights Moscow’s attempt to maintain some influence, even as the new government in Syria moves in a different direction.
As violence continues in the west, north, and east, the country remains on the brink of further fragmentation—a reminder that while Assad may be gone, Syria’s conflict is far from over.
