Reform UK has overtaken the Labour Party in a national opinion poll for the first time, a shift that has caused alarm within both Labour and Conservative circles. The YouGov poll, conducted on Sunday and Monday, shows support for Reform UK at 25 percent, placing them one percentage point ahead of Labour at 24 percent. This marks a significant moment for Nigel Farage’s party, which has been steadily gaining traction in British politics.
In the same poll, the Conservative Party found itself in third place with 21 percent of voter support, trailing behind both Reform and Labour. The Liberal Democrats came fourth at 14 percent, with the Green Party securing 9 percent of the vote. These results represent a potential turning point in the UK’s political landscape, as Reform UK, under the leadership of Nigel Farage, appears to be drawing support from both disillusioned Conservatives and former Labour voters.
Shifting allegiances and concerns for labour and the tories
The poll reveals troubling figures for Labour, with just 60 percent of those who voted for the party in the last general election in July 2024 indicating they would do so again. In contrast, 18 percent of Labour supporters said they would either “definitely or probably” not vote for the party. Meanwhile, 86 percent of Reform UK voters from the last election expressed strong commitment to the party, suggesting a high level of loyalty among its base.
The poll results are likely to raise concerns within the Conservative Party as well, as 24 percent of those who backed the Tories in the last election said they would now support Reform UK. This shift reflects Farage’s continuing appeal to disgruntled former Tory voters, many of whom feel disconnected from the current Conservative leadership under Kemi Badenoch. Additionally, a significant 43 percent of former Tory voters expressed support for a potential merger between the Conservatives and Reform UK, indicating that Farage’s party could continue to attract key members from the traditional right-wing.
Polling figures and political implications
Although the poll results are within the margin of error, the fact that Reform UK has taken a lead over Labour is significant, especially as both parties prepare for the local elections in May. In the race for political favourability, Sir Keir Starmer is facing challenges. The Labour leader’s net favourability rating stands at -36, indicating a substantial level of dissatisfaction with his leadership. In comparison, Nigel Farage’s net favourability has improved by 5 percentage points over the past month, reaching -27, suggesting that his appeal is growing, albeit still negative.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has seen a decline in her popularity. Her net favourability rating has dropped by 4 percentage points, standing at -29. This decline could be worrying for the Tories as they face a wave of discontent from within their own ranks and the wider electorate.
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The rise of reform UK and the may election
On the back of these polling results, Reform UK is gearing up for what it claims will be “the biggest-ever political rally in modern British history.” The party has announced that the rally will take place on March 28 at the Arena Birmingham, formerly known as the National Indoor Arena, ahead of the May 1 local and mayoral elections.
The rally is expected to serve as a major campaign launch, where Farage and his team will present their vision for Reform UK and seek to solidify their position as a credible alternative to both the Labour and Conservative Parties. With the May elections on the horizon, these developments suggest that Reform UK is positioning itself to play a significant role in British politics, challenging the established political order.
Looking ahead
As the local elections approach, both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party will need to address their respective challenges. Labour will need to re-engage its base and reassure voters disillusioned with Starmer’s leadership, while the Tories face the prospect of a serious challenge from within their own ranks, with many voters looking to Reform UK as an alternative.
For Nigel Farage and Reform UK, these poll results mark a critical moment. Their rise to the top of the polls, even if temporary, could have lasting effects on the political landscape in the UK. As the May elections approach, the Tories and Labour will undoubtedly be keen to address the growing influence of Reform UK, and both parties will need to adjust their strategies to contend with this new political reality.
