Reform UK overtakes labour in national polling for the first time
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has overtaken Labour for the first time in a national opinion poll, marking a significant shift in Britain’s political landscape.
The latest YouGov survey for Sky News, conducted on 2nd and 3rd February, places Reform UK at 25%, one percentage point ahead of Labour and four clear of the Conservatives. The poll surveyed 2,465 people and indicates growing public support for Farage’s party, which has positioned itself as an anti-establishment alternative.
A blow to labour and the tories
The poll revealed that nearly one in four people who voted conservative in the last general election would now back Reform. Additionally, it found that Labour is also losing support to Reform, with only 60% of those who backed Labour in July 2024 saying they would do so again. A notable 18% of Labour voters expressed that they would either definitely or probably not support the party now.
While Reform’s one-point lead over Labour is within the margin of error, the symbolism of topping the poll is significant. The results will undoubtedly cause alarm within both Labour and conservative headquarters ahead of the local elections in May.
Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, noted that the results show all three main parties are essentially neck and neck. “We’ve had Labour and Reform extremely close in all our polls this year, and this survey shows a narrow Reform lead,” he said. “While it remains within the margins of error, it reinforces the fact that Reform is roughly equal in support with Labour, with the Conservatives slipping back again.”
Farage celebrates a landmark achievement
Celebrating the result, Mr Farage took to X (formerly Twitter) to declare: “BREAKING NEWS. Reform UK are now LEADING with @YouGov for the first time. Britain wants Reform.”
Labour, which secured a landslide victory in the July 2024 general election, has dropped three percentage points since the previous YouGov survey conducted on 26th and 27th January. Meanwhile, Reform UK has gained two points, underscoring the party’s growing appeal.
The liberal democrats remained steady at 14%, while the green party held at 9%. The Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru also saw no changes, remaining at 3% and 1%, respectively.
Labour faces a potential red wall collapse
Another recent mega-poll suggested that Labour stands to lose more seats to Reform than the Conservatives in the next general election. The research, seen by The Observer, indicated that Labour could lose many constituencies across its traditional ‘Red Wall’ in the Midlands and North, as well as seats in Wales and the South of England, if an election were held today.
The analysis predicted that Reform could gain 76 new seats, 60 of which would be taken from Labour. Even a slight increase in Reform’s support could see Sir Keir Starmer’s party lose further ground.
Conservative leadership responds
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch dismissed Reform UK as a “protest party” and reaffirmed her focus on holding the Labour government to account. “The reason we were kicked out six months ago is because people were unhappy with our government. We are now under new leadership, and I’m working to change that, but it’s not going to happen overnight,” she said.
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Badenoch also criticised Labour’s performance, arguing that the party should still be in a “honeymoon period” following its landslide victory. “People in this country are crying out for serious politics,” she added.
Meanwhile, Farage hit back, telling Reform supporters that the Conservatives “should be bloody scared of you.” He drew parallels between his party’s rise and the recent resurgence of Donald Trump in the United States, arguing that Reform UK represents a movement for real change.
“This is not just going to be an earthquake in British politics,” he said. “This is going to be the biggest historical political change this country has ever seen.”
As Britain gears up for the upcoming local elections, all eyes will be on whether Reform UK can maintain or even extend its newfound lead. The shifting political dynamics suggest that the next general election could be one of the most unpredictable in modern British history.
