Vladimir Putin is facing a difficult decision over whether to accept a ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States and Ukraine, as concerns grow within the Kremlin that it could be a trap, while many Russians long for an end to the war.
The proposal, which was agreed upon by Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, comes despite previous tensions between the two leaders, including a bust-up in the Oval Office. The ceasefire plan has sparked intense debate in Moscow, with former Putin adviser Sergei Markov describing it as a “dilemma” for the Russian president.
The kremlin’s conundrum
Russia currently has the military advantage in eastern Ukraine, steadily advancing and seizing more territory, albeit at a significant cost in casualties. Stopping now, according to military analysts, would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm, potentially prolonging the conflict and making it harder for Russia to maintain its territorial gains.
However, there is growing fatigue among the Russian public, with Mr Markov telling BBC Radio that many Russians want peace. Additionally, several international allies of Russia, including China and India, have been quietly encouraging an end to hostilities.
Meanwhile, Putin’s relationship with Trump could also influence his stance. Unlike Joe Biden, who Putin has dismissed as a direct adversary, Trump is viewed as a strategic rival rather than an outright enemy. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has not ruled out a direct phone call between Putin and Trump, suggesting that talks could be arranged swiftly if necessary.
Western pressure and ceasefire concerns
Western nations, including the UK and France, are urging Putin to accept the ceasefire now, warning that continued conflict will lead to further isolation and economic hardship for Russia. However, Putin has consistently rejected a short-term truce, demanding instead a long-term peace deal that includes security guarantees for Russia.
Speaking to the security council in January, he reiterated:
“We don’t need a truce. We need a long-term peace secured by guarantees for the Russian Federation and its citizens. It is a difficult question how to ensure these guarantees.”
Putin also remains deeply sceptical about Western involvement in Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has strongly opposed NATO peacekeepers being deployed, after reports that the UK and France were among the countries willing to send troops to Ukraine.
Putin’s demands and Ukraine’s rejection
In June 2023, Putin outlined his conditions for peace, demanding that:
- Ukraine formally abandon its NATO ambitions.
- Kyiv withdraws its troops from four eastern regions—territory that Russia has claimed as its own.
Ukraine has flatly rejected these demands, viewing them as an attempt to legitimise Russia’s land grabs. The Ukrainian government insists that any peace agreement must restore its internationally recognised borders.
A senior Russian source, speaking to local media, suggested that while Putin may be open to a ceasefire, he would first need solid guarantees.
“It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form,” the source explained. “Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing.”
Another Kremlin insider described the ceasefire proposal as a potential trap, suggesting that accepting it without clear assurances could weaken Putin’s bargaining position.
“From Moscow’s perspective, this ceasefire could be a trick. Without clear guarantees, halting the war now would be seen as a sign of weakness,” the source said.
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US motives and military aid
A third senior Russian source claimed that the real motivation behind the ceasefire proposal was the resumption of US military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
“The United States has decorated this move with a ceasefire proposal, but at its core, it’s about reinforcing Ukraine’s military capabilities,” the source said.
Washington recently approved new military support packages for Ukraine, including long-range weapons and advanced surveillance technology, raising concerns in Moscow that Ukraine’s armed forces could become significantly stronger if hostilities pause.
The road ahead
As the ceasefire debate rages on, Putin is left with a delicate balancing act—continue the war at the risk of further casualties and economic strain, or accept a ceasefire that could allow Ukraine to regroup and resist Russian advances more effectively.
For now, the Kremlin is remaining cautious, with officials insisting they need more details from Washington before making a final decision. However, the pressure is mounting—from the battlefield, from within Russia, and from global powers—to find a path towards peace.
