The number of migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the Channel has edged closer to 10,000 this year, as the country prepares for what is forecast to be the warmest week of 2025 so far.
Provisional figures from the Home Office show that as of Sunday, some 9,885 people had made the perilous journey across the Channel from France. With the continued spell of good weather, it is widely expected that the 10,000 mark will be surpassed imminently — potentially making it the earliest point in any calendar year that the milestone has been reached since records began in 2018.
On Monday, images captured at Dover showed dozens of migrants wearing life jackets disembarking from a Border Force vessel under clear, sunny skies. One boat was seen arriving carrying around 50 individuals, while another Border Force ship was seen heading back into the Channel later in the day, suggesting more crossings were ongoing.
The Home Office is due to release official numbers for Monday’s crossings on Tuesday, which will confirm whether the 10,000 figure has officially been surpassed. If so, it would mark a significant and symbolic moment in the continuing crisis over illegal Channel crossings.
In comparison, last year it took until 24 May for the number of arrivals to hit 10,000, and in 2023 it was not reached until 17 June. The steep acceleration has prompted fresh political recriminations, with the issue once again dominating the national debate.
Figures show that the current cumulative total for 2025 — 9,885 — represents a 38% increase compared to the same point last year (7,167), and an astonishing 72% increase compared to 2023 (5,745), according to analysis by the PA news agency.
On Monday, the Conservative Party claimed that the 10,000 threshold had already been breached. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp used the occasion to launch a scathing attack on Labour, accusing them of complacency.
“Britain’s borders are being torn apart under Labour,” Mr Philp said. “This year is already the worst on record for small boat crossings after over 10,000 illegal immigrants arrived in Britain, but Labour just sit on their hands.”
The Home Office defended its efforts, insisting that it remains committed to tackling the crossings and dismantling the criminal gangs behind them.
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A Home Office spokesperson said: “We all want to end dangerous small boat crossings, which threaten lives and undermine our border security. That’s why this Government is investing in border security, increasing returns to their highest levels for more than half a decade, and imposing a major crackdown on illegal working to end the false promise of jobs used by gangs to sell spaces on boats.”
The issue of Channel crossings remains politically fraught, with the public increasingly concerned about border security and immigration. While the Government has pointed to its investments in enforcement and returns agreements with countries such as Albania, critics argue that the numbers speak for themselves and that the current strategy is not delivering results.
The latest surge in arrivals also comes amid a backdrop of warmer weather and calmer seas, conditions which typically encourage more crossings. Border Force officials are bracing for a busy week as migrants take advantage of the favourable weather window.
With summer approaching and no immediate solution in sight, pressure is mounting on ministers to show tangible results in their efforts to curb crossings and restore public confidence in the UK’s borders.
Would you like me to also draft a sidebar piece summarising year-on-year comparison data for Channel crossings?
