It has been three years since the fall of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, to Taliban forces. Over this period, the region has witnessed significant changes, including shifts in Afghanistan itself and alterations in India’s policies towards both the Taliban and Afghanistan. In an insightful discussion with India Today Global, Kabir Taneja, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, provides an in-depth analysis of India’s evolving stance on the Taliban and Afghanistan. He also sheds light on the latest developments in the region and their implications.
The Taliban’s three-year rule
The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a significant turning point for the region. The militant group, which had previously ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, has now been in control for three years. However, the stability of their rule remains tenuous.
Taneja observes, “They have just managed to keep power in play for three years.” This period has been marked by the Taliban’s struggle to maintain control, with the group facing challenges both internally and externally. Despite this, the world’s attention has been diverted to other global crises, allowing the Taliban to consolidate their power without facing significant opposition from the international community.
International recognition of the Taliban
One of the critical issues surrounding the Taliban’s rule has been the question of international recognition. Very few countries have officially recognized the Taliban government. Taneja explains, “Very few have actually recognized the Taliban officially. I think the Chinese have, but they have also taken the ambassador on board officially without confirming it as official recognition on paper.”
Russia, another key player in the region, has adopted a cautious approach. “The Russians, the other large party, have been trying to be more influential in Kabul,” Taneja notes. However, Moscow has made it clear that it will only recognize the Taliban if they form an inclusive government, a demand that the Taliban has yet to meet.
This lack of broad international recognition has isolated the Taliban regime, limiting its ability to engage with the global community and exacerbating the challenges it faces in governance and legitimacy.
The humanitarian crisis
While the Taliban has managed to maintain power, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly. Taneja highlights that the international community, particularly Western countries, has been providing humanitarian aid, but this has not been enough to address the crisis.
“The humanitarian aid is being provided by the international community largely to Western countries right now,” Taneja explains, emphasizing that the situation on the ground is dire. Health and nutrition levels in Afghanistan have plummeted, with Taneja describing them as “at rock bottom.” This stark contrast between official reports and the reality faced by ordinary Afghans underscores the severity of the crisis.
The Taliban’s inability to effectively govern and provide for its population has exacerbated the humanitarian situation, leading to widespread suffering and despair among the Afghan people.
India’s evolving approach to Afghanistan
In the wake of the Taliban’s return to power, India’s approach to Afghanistan has undergone significant changes. Initially cautious and hesitant to engage with the new regime, India has gradually shifted its stance, recognizing the need to maintain a presence in Afghanistan for strategic reasons.
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India established a technical mission in Kabul, marking a significant departure from its earlier stance. “India is just at this point of time happy that it has some presence in Kabul,” Taneja says, indicating that New Delhi is focusing on maintaining a foothold in the region.
One of the driving factors behind India’s engagement with the Taliban has been the deteriorating relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan. This shift aligns with India’s strategic interests, as it reduces Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. “India’s policies have shifted a lot in accordance with the shifts that are taking place within Afghanistan,” Taneja notes.
India has also resumed issuing visas to Afghans, a significant policy change that reflects New Delhi’s attempt to rebuild goodwill in Afghanistan. “A lot of public goodwill that India built over the past many years in Afghanistan has gotten fairly dented due to earlier restrictions. The resumption of visa issuance aims to address these issues, although it has been described as three years or two years too late,” Taneja remarks.
Three years after the fall of Kabul, the situation in Afghanistan remains complex and fraught with challenges. The Taliban’s rule is marked by instability and a lack of international recognition, while the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. In this context, India’s evolving engagement with the Taliban reflects a pragmatic approach to securing its strategic interests in the region.
As the situation in Afghanistan continues to develop, India’s policies will likely remain fluid, adapting to the changing dynamics on the ground. While the future of Afghanistan under Taliban rule remains uncertain, India’s cautious engagement signals a recognition of the need to stay involved in the region’s unfolding drama.
