The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government has intensified long-standing tensions between Turkey and Israel, with both nations pursuing conflicting interests in Syria. As Turkey consolidates its influence over Damascus, Israel has grown increasingly wary of the new Syrian leadership, raising the risk of a broader regional confrontation.
Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria
Turkey, which has long backed opposition groups against Assad, has emerged as a major stakeholder in shaping Syria’s future. Ankara has pushed for a stable and united Syria under a strong central government, viewing it as crucial to maintaining regional security and preventing the resurgence of Kurdish militant groups.
A significant development in this direction came this week when Syria’s interim government, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, reached an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate with the Syrian state and army. Turkey welcomed the deal, seeing it as a step towards national reconciliation and an opportunity to reduce Kurdish separatist ambitions, which Ankara considers a direct threat due to the SDF’s ties with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Turkey has maintained a military presence in northern Syria since 2016, conducting operations to push back Kurdish militias. Turkish officials have stated that Ankara is now working directly with Syria’s new leadership to reinforce security and defence cooperation. A high-level military delegation from Turkey is expected to visit Damascus next week to discuss further collaboration.
Israel’s concerns over the new Syrian leadership
Unlike Turkey, Israel remains highly sceptical of al-Sharaa’s leadership, citing his past affiliations with al-Qaida-linked groups. Tel Aviv sees his rise as a potential security threat, fearing that a unified Syria under his rule could serve as a new base for jihadist groups hostile to Israel.
Israeli analysts argue that Syria was turned into a launchpad for Iranian and Hezbollah activities under Assad, and Israel has no interest in seeing a strong, centralised Syrian government emerge. Instead, it appears to prefer a fragmented Syria, which it believes would pose less of a threat to its borders.
Following Assad’s fall, Israel seized strategic territory in southern Syria, a move it justified as necessary to prevent hostile forces from establishing positions near the Israeli border. However, both Syria’s new government and the United Nations have condemned the incursion, accusing Israel of violating a 1974 ceasefire agreement.
Israel has also conducted airstrikes on military assets left behind by Assad’s forces and has signalled plans to maintain a long-term military presence in the region.
Growing risk of direct confrontation
The power struggle in Syria has increasingly turned into a proxy battle between Turkey and Israel, with both nations vying for influence.
“As Syria undergoes its transition, Turkish and Israeli interests are in direct conflict,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “This creates a dangerous dynamic where, in nearly every key aspect of Syria’s future, there is a fundamental clash between Ankara and Tel Aviv.”
One of the most immediate flashpoints is southern Syria, where Israel has warned that it will not tolerate the deployment of Syrian military forces south of Damascus. Israeli officials have also threatened military intervention in defence of the Druze community, a religious minority present in both Syria and Israel, after reports of clashes between Druze factions and Syria’s new security forces.
Meanwhile, Turkish authorities have expressed growing alarm over Israeli support for Kurdish autonomy movements, as well as Tel Aviv’s alleged backing of demands for self-rule from Druze and Alawite communities. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently issued a veiled warning, stating:
“Those who seek to provoke ethnic and religious divisions in Syria to exploit instability in the country should know that they will not achieve their goals.”
The sectarian violence in Syria has escalated in recent weeks, with factions aligned with the new government—some allegedly supported by Turkey—launching reprisal attacks against Alawites following assaults by pro-Assad groups on the Syrian coast. Hundreds of civilians were reported killed, prompting strong condemnation from Erdoğan, who described the violence as an attack on Syria’s territorial integrity.
Israel’s increasing involvement in Syria
Israel’s response to the crisis has been to deepen its engagement in Syria, particularly by pledging protection and economic support to the Druze community in the south. Tel Aviv has already sent food aid trucks into Druze-populated areas and is allowing some Syrian Druze to cross into Israeli-controlled parts of the Golan Heights for work.
Sharren Haskel, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, accused the new Syrian government of engaging in “ethnic cleansing” under the leadership of an “Islamist terror regime backed by Turkey.”
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Israel has also signalled its willingness to take direct military action if it perceives a threat emanating from Syria. Haskel stated that Tel Aviv is working to prevent what it calls a “jihadist threat” from establishing itself along Israel’s northern border.
Diplomatic challenges and future prospects
Despite these tensions, some analysts believe that Israel and Turkey could still find common ground in preventing Syria from descending into further chaos. A recent report from the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank led by a former military intelligence chief, suggested that Israel could benefit from engaging with Turkey—the only regional power with direct influence over Syria’s new leadership—to reduce the risk of military conflict.
However, deep mistrust remains. Turkey and Israel, once close allies, have seen their relations deteriorate significantly under Erdoğan’s leadership, particularly over his strong support for the Palestinian cause and Hamas. Following the recent Gaza war, Ankara cut trade ties with Israel and backed a genocide case against Tel Aviv at the UN’s International Court of Justice.
The ongoing standoff over Syria only adds another layer of complexity to the strained relationship.
“Turkey and Israel used to be able to separate their political disagreements from their security cooperation,” Aydıntaşbaş noted. “But now, they are actively working to undermine each other’s influence in Syria. The real question is whether they understand each other’s red lines—or if they are heading towards an inevitable collision.”
