Kremlin forces prepare for fresh offensive as ceasefire talks stall
Ukraine has warned that Russia is preparing to launch a new military offensive in the coming weeks in an effort to increase pressure and strengthen its bargaining position in stalled ceasefire talks. According to Ukrainian officials and military analysts, the Kremlin is eyeing a multi-pronged assault across the 1,000-kilometre front line as the spring fighting season approaches.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing intelligence reports, stated that Russian forces are massing in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, reinforcing fears that Moscow is delaying peace discussions in favour of territorial gains.
“They’re dragging out the talks and trying to get the US stuck in endless and pointless discussions about fake conditions just to buy time and then try to grab more land,” Zelenskyy said during a visit to Paris on Thursday.
Two G7 diplomatic officials in Kyiv echoed this assessment, warning that Russia is not engaging in meaningful negotiations and is instead focused on improving its battlefield position. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.
Russia rejects US ceasefire proposal
Amid diplomatic efforts to pause hostilities, Russia has dismissed a US-backed proposal for a 30-day full ceasefire, and discussions of a partial halt to fighting in the Black Sea region have stalled due to what Ukrainian officials describe as unrealistic Russian demands.
President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a forum in Murmansk, made it clear that Russia sees military success as its primary objective.
“On the entire front line, the strategic initiative is completely in the hands of the Russian armed forces. Our troops are moving forward, liberating one territory after another, one settlement after another, every day,” Putin declared.
Russian forces intensify attacks across the front
In recent weeks, Ukrainian military commanders have reported a noticeable increase in Russian attacks, aimed at securing stronger tactical positions ahead of a broader spring-summer offensive.
“They need time until May, that’s all,” said Pavlo Narozhnyi, a Ukrainian military analyst with connections to front-line intelligence sources.
One major area of concern is the Kursk region, where a joint force of Russian and North Korean soldiers has nearly eliminated Ukraine’s previous territorial gains. The region had been a key bargaining chip for Kyiv, but Russian forces have retaken 80% of the land, analysts said.
Additionally, fighting has intensified along the eastern front, particularly in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. A Ukrainian battalion commander, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that battle-hardened Russian troops from Kursk could soon be redeployed to other key areas.
“It will be hard. The forces from Kursk will come on a high from their wins there,” he said.
Oleksii Hetman, another Ukrainian military analyst, predicted that the new Russian offensive could last six to nine months, potentially stretching into early 2025.
Heavy fighting in Pokrovsk and beyond
One of Ukraine’s key defensive strongholds, Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, has witnessed increased Russian aggression, with Ukrainian commanders reporting a temporary Russian pause in early March, followed by a resumed assault mid-month.
Maj. Viktor Trehubov, a Ukrainian military spokesman, explained:
“The Russians were significantly exhausted over the past two months. During 10 days of March, they took a sort of pause. In mid-March, the attack resumed. This means the Russians have simply recovered.”
A Ukrainian soldier, known by the call sign Italian, said that Russian reconnaissance missions have surged, indicating preparations for a full-scale offensive. Intelligence sources have detected a buildup of forces around Selidove, including large armoured vehicles and fresh troops.
Further south, the Zaporizhzhia region has also seen heightened Russian military activity. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a former Russian Defence Ministry press officer who runs the Rybar military blog, reported that Russian troops had begun a new push west of Orikhiv, aiming to force Ukraine to redeploy troops from other sectors and weaken defences in Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.
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Russia optimistic about its next offensive
Despite suffering heavy losses throughout the war, Russia appears increasingly confident in its military position. Moscow-based analyst Sergey Poletaev recently wrote that both sides are actively preparing for the upcoming campaign, but warned that Ukraine may be struggling to match Russian preparations.
“Despite being worn down from combat, the Russian army has a real chance of achieving decisive success in the next six months to a year. This could lead to the collapse of Ukrainian defences,” Poletaev claimed.
Stalled negotiations fuel frustration
Meanwhile, at the negotiating table, progress remains limited. Earlier this month, Moscow rejected Washington’s proposal for a full ceasefire but showed some willingness to negotiate a limited truce for Black Sea shipping routes. However, Russia’s demand that its state bank be reconnected to the SWIFT system—a condition Kyiv and the EU flatly rejected—has thrown the talks into further doubt.
On the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers remain sceptical about the ongoing diplomacy.
“No one believes in them,” said Italian, the Ukrainian soldier stationed in Pokrovsk. “But there is still hope that the conflict will move in another direction. Everyone is waiting for some changes in the combat zone because it is not good for us now. We really don’t want to admit that.”
With Russia’s offensive preparations accelerating and peace negotiations failing to gain traction, Ukraine faces the daunting reality of an extended and intensified war effort in the months ahead.
