Global efforts to decarbonise the economy are moving at an alarmingly slow pace, according to a report released on Wednesday by Fitch Ratings. While developed economies have made some progress, emerging markets have struggled to reduce their carbon emissions, raising concerns about the world’s ability to meet critical climate goals.
Fitch’s report highlights that world carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by 1.8% in 2023, compared to global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.9%. Although the emissions-to-GDP ratio declined slightly by just over 1%, this reduction remains far below what is necessary to meet global climate targets. To keep pace with the targets set under the Paris Agreement and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the world would need to see annual emissions reductions of 8% during the 2020-2030 period. The current trajectory indicates that these targets are increasingly out of reach.
Developed Economies Show Some Progress
The report notes that emissions from 10 major developed economies dropped to their lowest levels since 1970, indicating progress in decarbonising sectors such as energy, industry, and transport. Fitch attributes this progress to significant investments in clean energy technologies and the adoption of more stringent environmental regulations in countries like the United States, Germany, and Japan.
However, while the progress in developed economies is commendable, it is not enough to offset the rise in emissions from emerging markets. “Developed economies are showing signs of improvement, but the global picture is still bleak due to the lack of decarbonisation progress in emerging markets,” the report stated.
Emerging Markets Lagging Behind
The most concerning aspect of the report is the lack of progress in emerging markets. Fitch tracked 10 major emerging markets and found that both CO2 emissions and GDP grew by 4.7% in 2023. This increase in emissions, coupled with faster GDP growth and rising energy consumption, is a significant barrier to global decarbonisation efforts.
“The lack of progress in decarbonisation in emerging markets is particularly concerning, given their faster GDP growth and rising share of global energy consumption,” Fitch said. Emerging markets, including India, Brazil, and Russia, have been slow to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions have continued to rise as industrial output expands and energy demand grows.
Underinvestment in Clean Energy
One of the primary reasons for the poor performance in emerging markets is underinvestment in clean energy projects. Despite growing energy demands, many of these economies have not invested enough in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and other decarbonisation technologies.
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Fitch pointed out that this underinvestment is especially problematic in emerging markets excluding China. While China has made considerable strides in clean energy investment and now leads the world in renewable energy capacity, other emerging economies have lagged far behind. This disparity has raised concerns about whether global decarbonisation targets can be met without more robust action from the developing world.
Urgent Need for Global Cooperation
Fitch’s report underscores the urgent need for stronger global cooperation in addressing climate change, particularly in helping emerging markets transition to cleaner energy systems. Without substantial financial and technological support, many developing countries may continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, further exacerbating global warming.
In conclusion, the decarbonisation of the global economy is progressing too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate targets. While developed economies are showing some progress, emerging markets remain a critical challenge. Fitch’s report calls for immediate action, particularly in the form of increased investment in clean energy in developing countries, to prevent the world from missing its net-zero emissions goals by 2050.
