The NSE Nifty 50 index has experienced significant volatility over recent trading sessions, driven primarily by key events in the United States. Over the past week, the index has fluctuated between gains and losses of around 1% in each session, creating a rollercoaster for investors, with moods swinging from bullish to bearish. This volatility comes amid broader declines; over the last six weeks, Nifty 50 has plunged by over 9%—more than 2,400 points—from its peak of 26,277 on September 27, 2024.
India VIX, the volatility index that gauges market fear, saw a slight increase, closing 0.5% higher at 14.94 on Thursday. With the VIX level remaining below 15, some analysts see room for sustained bullish momentum, as lower volatility can foster buying interest. Here’s a deeper look at how market experts from leading brokerage firms interpret this recent market volatility and their expectations for the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty indices in the near term.
Jatin Gedia – technical research analyst at sharekhan by BNP paribas
Jatin Gedia observes that on the daily charts, Nifty has encountered selling pressure from the upper boundary of a falling channel. However, the daily momentum indicator has shown a positive crossover, which signals a potential “Buy” setup, with Nifty trading near crucial hourly moving averages around the support level.
“We maintain our bullish outlook for the Nifty in the short term, with a target of 25,350. On the downside, 24,000 is a key support level,” Gedia explained. As for Bank Nifty, which faced resistance at the 52,500 mark, he noted that while profit booking occurred, it managed to hold on to its support zone of 51,750–51,650. Gedia expects Bank Nifty’s trend to remain sideways to bullish in the near term.
Hrishikesh Yedve – AVP, technical and derivatives research at Asit C. Mehta investment intermediates (A Pantomath Group Company)
According to Hrishikesh Yedve, the Nifty index formed a red candle on the daily chart, which signals weakness in the immediate term. He points to the 24,500 mark as an initial resistance, with 24,700 acting as a secondary barrier. Despite these hurdles, the Nifty index is showing resilience at the 150-day exponential moving average (DEMA) near 23,990, as well as the recent swing support around 23,800.
In the short term, Yedve expects Nifty to consolidate within the 23,800–24,700 range. He notes that a decisive breakout on either side will likely determine the next directional move. Bank Nifty, meanwhile, has been consolidating within a narrower band of 50,400–52,580 over the past week. While it has formed higher lows, it has yet to clear the critical 52,580 resistance. On the downside, Bank Nifty is finding support near the 150-day DEMA at 50,540. Should the index sustain above 52,580, Yedve suggests that an upward trend could follow.
Aditya Agarwal – Head of derivatives & technical analysis at sanctum wealth
Aditya Agarwal sees the Nifty consolidating between the 24,000 and 24,500 levels in the short term, with no definitive direction. He recommends initiating long positions on dips toward 24,120–24,040 and booking profits on trading longs when the index nears 24,450–24,500.
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As for the Bank Nifty, Agarwal observed that it found solid support around 51,750–51,800 on Thursday, followed by a slight pullback. He maintains a positive view on Bank Nifty’s overall structure and suggests that dips toward 51,700–51,500 could be used as a buying opportunity, with targets around 52,350–52,600.
Analyzing the road ahead
With market volatility remaining a key factor, analysts are watching for signals that could provide greater clarity on Nifty’s direction. Events in the US, including interest rate decisions and economic data releases, continue to exert pressure on global markets, creating a ripple effect on Indian equities. However, with India VIX hovering below 15, some experts believe that the market retains the potential for bullish sentiment, as subdued volatility tends to encourage buying activity.
The Nifty 50’s performance over the coming weeks may depend on its ability to hold above critical support levels, as highlighted by technical experts. The levels around 23,800–24,000 for Nifty and 51,700–51,800 for Bank Nifty are viewed as pivotal for the indices’ immediate future. Breaking below these levels could lead to further downside, while sustaining above could foster a renewed uptrend.
The recent Nifty 50 volatility underscores the complexities of current market conditions, as both domestic and global factors shape investor sentiment. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with some leaning toward a bullish outlook if Nifty holds above key support levels and volatility stays low. The near-term market landscape will be shaped by how the Nifty and Bank Nifty navigate these critical levels. Investors may consider a strategic approach, balancing buying opportunities on dips with prudent profit-booking at resistance zones, as recommended by the experts.
