This week, former US President Donald Trump made what appeared to be a typically bold and unconventional offer to aid Ukraine, suggesting that the United States could purchase strategic minerals from the war-torn nation in exchange for continued financial support.
“We’re investing hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump told reporters in Washington. “They have great rare earths, and I want security of rare earths.” He further claimed that Ukraine is “willing to do it.”
Trump’s proposal has thrust Ukraine’s vast reserves of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) into the spotlight, underscoring the growing geopolitical competition for critical minerals essential to modern technology, military applications, and green energy.
The value of Ukraine’s rare earth elements
Ukraine is estimated to possess 22 of the 34 most critical minerals designated by the European Union, making it a potential powerhouse in the supply chain for advanced technologies. In particular, the country is home to the largest exploitable titanium deposits in Europe, and potentially even the world.
Rare earth elements, a category of 17 metallic elements, are indispensable in manufacturing everything from electric vehicles and smartphones to missile guidance systems, satellites, and solar panels. Their significance in global trade has escalated in recent years, as China has tightened control over its own REE exports, a move that has sent shockwaves through Western supply chains.
Just last Monday, Beijing imposed fresh restrictions on the export of several rare metals, heightening fears that a complete export ban could be enacted at any moment.
A global battle for strategic minerals
The competition for rare earth elements has become a defining feature of international politics and economic strategy. Trump’s latest Ukraine proposal aligns with his broader pattern of aggressive resource acquisition, which previously saw him propose buying Greenland to tap into its largely untapped mineral wealth.
From Vietnam and Brazil to Australia and South Africa, global powers are scrambling to secure stable and independent supplies of critical minerals. Nowhere is this contest more intense than in Central Africa, where a decades-long battle for control over lithium, cadmium, and other high-value resources continues to shape regional conflicts.
Ukraine’s strategic gamble
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has responded positively to Trump’s proposal, seeing it as an opportunity to advance his “Five Point Peace Plan”, which reportedly includes three secret annexes.
NATO’s newly appointed Secretary General, Mark Rutte, has hinted at having his own undisclosed strategy to counterbalance these developments.
Meanwhile, Russia’s reaction has been noticeably muted. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the idea of mineral acquisition as a purely commercial matter, stating that while Trump’s approach at least involved compensation, Moscow still believed no assistance should be given to Ukraine at all.
Yet beneath the surface, Russia has already laid claim to much of Ukraine’s most resource-rich regions. Up to 40% of Ukraine’s strategic mineral reserves lie in areas currently under Russian occupation, particularly in the industrial heartlands of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. However, continued fighting has hampered Moscow’s ability to extract and exploit these valuable resources.
China’s growing influence and Russia’s strategic dilemma
China dominates the global REE industry, controlling an estimated 40% of global reserves and 90% of global production. Yet despite this advantage, Beijing continues to seek additional sources, expanding its mining operations into Russia, Afghanistan, Vietnam, and Africa, as well as pushing the limits of resource exploitation in the Arctic and Antarctic.
This growing Chinese influence is reportedly causing internal tensions within the Kremlin. A leaked Telegram post last week suggested that a secretive Kremlin “monitoring committee” had been assessing Russia’s increasing dependence on Chinese support.
According to the post, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and other high-ranking officials fear that, as the war drags on, Moscow is at risk of becoming a mere “mineral colony” of China.
Greenland, the arctic, and the next resource frontier
Trump’s renewed interest in Ukraine’s rare earths is just one facet of his broader strategic vision, which has long fixated on Greenland’s vast, untapped resources.
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Experts estimate that Greenland’s mineral wealth could be worth up to $10 trillion. However, extracting these resources remains an extreme challenge, with harsh Arctic conditions posing significant logistical and environmental obstacles.
As climate change accelerates polar ice melt, new mining opportunities are expected to emerge across both the Arctic and Antarctic, potentially opening new frontiers for resource exploitation.
The future of the rare earths race
The battle for rare earths is poised to reshape global alliances and conflicts. With the US, China, Russia, and the EU all vying for control over the world’s most critical minerals, the geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly.
China and Russia, along with their allies Argentina and Chile, are already pushing the boundaries of the Antarctic Treaty of 1961, which currently prohibits large-scale commercial mining in the region.
As superpower competition intensifies, the world’s last great wildernesses—the Arctic and Antarctic—are set to become the next hot spots of geopolitical tension and strategic resource competition.
Trump’s Ukraine offer is not just about peace talks—it is part of a larger, brutal contest for economic supremacy in the age of rare earths.
