The prospect of a transatlantic alliance without the United States may once have seemed unimaginable – a contradiction in terms, much like Hamlet without the prince. However, with the world now facing the aftermath of Donald Trump’s return to prominence, such a reality seems increasingly likely. Trump’s recent phone call with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday is a stark reminder that Europe’s future is being shaped in a world where American leadership is no longer guaranteed.
In the early days of Europe’s response to Trump’s potential return to power, the primary focus was to ensure continued support for Ukraine. The primary concern was to maintain US military aid, intelligence cooperation, and diplomatic engagement with both Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, all while striving to increase Europe’s own security contributions. The goal, for now, remains clear: securing Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression.
Despite Trump’s rhetoric, it has become clear that Europe is starting to navigate a more independent course, with or without the US. Europe’s current focus is not just about reacting to Trump’s actions but about reconfiguring a lasting, more Europe-centric alliance. A NATO-minus, one could argue, is emerging—a Western alliance still dependent on NATO’s structural framework but increasingly less reliant on the US, with Europe and Canada playing more significant roles.
The leadership of this new European order is driven by three unlikely figures: Germany’s conservative Chancellor, a centrist French President, and a UK Prime Minister with the smallest British army since the Napoleonic wars. Together, they are working to forge a new, more self-reliant European defence strategy, albeit with the uncertainty surrounding the role of the US.
Trump’s phone call with Putin on Tuesday brought the harsh realities of his foreign policy approach into sharper focus. Any hopes that Trump could sway Putin on Ukraine were always unrealistic. The Russian leader has made it abundantly clear that he considers Ukraine to be part of Russia and has no intention of halting his invasion. Trump’s stated intention to reduce US military and financial support for Ukraine further complicates matters. His broader approach to Europe appears to be rooted in a desire to withdraw US support from European defence structures, including NATO.
Yet, despite this uncertainty, a significant shift in Europe’s defence posture is taking place. This week’s vote in Germany’s Bundestag to loosen the country’s constitutionally protected borrowing limits is a key moment in this transformation. The move, which authorises a €500bn fund for economic growth, infrastructure, and military spending, marks a decisive break with Germany’s post-war reluctance to invest heavily in defence. It signals that Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is now prepared to shoulder a larger share of Europe’s security burden.
This shift is historic for a nation that has long been cautious about militarisation due to its history. Germany’s previous avoidance of large-scale borrowing and military expenditure was grounded in the country’s post-war constitution, but the growing threat from Russia, combined with the pressures of economic stagnation, has forced a reassessment. While the far-right and far-left in Germany remain opposed to these changes, seeing them as a betrayal of the country’s pacifist traditions, the broader consequences for Europe are profound.
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For Europe as a whole, this change could signal a more unified approach to defence. Since the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian empire in 1918, Germany has been at the heart of Western European foreign policy. The country’s reliance on Russia as a diplomatic partner, dating back to leaders like Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel, has now given way to a more confrontational stance under Merz. If the upper house of the German parliament endorses these changes this week, it will signify the end of Europe’s denial about the need for a stronger collective defence.
However, the risks of this shift are not insignificant. History provides ample examples of international alliances that have faltered in the face of determined opposition. The return of nationalism, territorial ambitions, and aggressive tyranny, as seen with Russia, echoes past conflicts that led Europe into both World Wars. While the US was a critical player in both of these wars, today’s America is increasingly unreliable, with isolationism and unpredictable foreign policy shifting the balance.
In the face of these challenges, European nations, supported by Canada, are stepping up to uphold the political and moral order that emerged after 1945. The new alignment that is emerging, rooted in a reinvigorated commitment to NATO and European defence, marks a turning point. Europe is no longer simply a passive partner in a US-led world order but is beginning to carve out its own role in shaping the future.
This is a pivotal moment in European history. For the first time in decades, Europe has the opportunity to lead its own security and defence agenda. While the risks are clear, so too is the potential for a stronger, more unified continent ready to face the challenges of the 21st century.
