In a stark revelation this week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) unveiled a projection that should have anyone invested in the future of the UK deeply concerned. The figures suggest that in the next decade, nearly 10 million people will settle in the UK — a staggering 9,914,000 new arrivals by 2035. That’s almost a million people each year, a number that raises urgent questions about the country’s capacity to handle such an influx. Amid this, the UK’s population is projected to pass 70 million by mid-2024, reaching 75 million in just 15 years, with five million new people expected despite the fact that nearly five million will leave.
This kind of rapid population growth sounds neat in theory, but it represents a monumental challenge for the country, especially when considering the cultural and social changes it brings. The majority of new arrivals are likely to come from outside the EU and English-speaking countries like Australia, with nations such as Nigeria and Pakistan topping the list. These groups may integrate, but many will bring with them different cultures and customs that will reshape the fabric of British society. The key question is whether this will enhance national identity or challenge it to the point of fracturing it.
For some, this is simply a sign of “vibrant diversity” coming to the UK, yet others are more cautious, raising concerns about social cohesion. The increasingly polarized nature of this debate reflects growing dissatisfaction among the public, who feel their culture is being eroded by unchecked immigration. The issue, at its heart, lies in the ability of the country to maintain its traditional values while embracing change. The impact on the national psyche could be profound.
Politically, the implications of these figures are far-reaching. While mass migration can be traced back to Tony Blair’s tenure, it was during the Conservative years under successive prime ministers that immigration surged to levels never before seen. Boris Johnson’s tenure saw net migration hit 872,000 in 2022, the highest on record. Given this history, it’s difficult for the Tory party to now claim that immigration is a problem, yet voices such as Nigel Farage and the Reform Party have made their discontent clear, asking, “Did anyone actually vote for this?”
This growing sense of frustration with immigration often brings uncomfortable subtexts to the surface. One of the more troubling developments in the media has been the suggestion that women are somehow to blame for the UK’s population woes. The decline in birth rates is frequently portrayed as a fertility crisis, but the true issue seems to lie more in the decision not to have children. In 2022, more than a quarter of a million abortions were recorded in the UK, reflecting a shift in societal attitudes to family life.
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There’s no denying that many women face significant financial barriers to having children, particularly with the costs of raising a family in an increasingly expensive society. The issue is not about women being unwilling to conceive, but rather about the systemic pressures that make having children unaffordable. Without adequate financial support, affordable childcare, and policies that make family life manageable, women are faced with an impossible decision between career and family.
Hungary’s approach to this issue under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán offers an example of how government policy can influence birth rates. Hungary’s family-focused policies, such as tax breaks, free childcare, and incentives for married couples, have seen an uptick in birth rates, albeit from a very low base. While the UK may not be able to replicate this level of support, it’s clear that policies which encourage family life and ease financial pressure could play a crucial role in addressing the birth rate issue.
Yet, immigration remains the elephant in the room. With a projected one million people arriving every year, the UK must confront the reality that relying on mass immigration to maintain population levels is not sustainable. Rather than relying on imported labour to fill gaps in the workforce, perhaps it’s time to explore domestic solutions. Why not focus on getting long-term sick workers back into the workforce, or invest in social care to make it an attractive career path for British youth?
The bottom line is that the UK simply does not know how many people are actually living within its borders. The ONS’s population figures are often too conservative, and these projections likely underestimate the true scale of immigration. It’s a worrying prospect, one that many would prefer to ignore. But for the sake of the country’s future, it’s a conversation that must be had — and soon.
