For over a century, Johnson County residents consistently voted for Republican presidential candidates, even during periods of significant Democratic strength. Notably, Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and Lyndon Johnson’s overwhelming triumph in 1964 failed to sway the county from its Republican identity. The last time a Democrat won Johnson County was in 1916, when Woodrow Wilson carried the vote.
However, in 2020, Joe Biden ended this extraordinary Republican run. His victory in Johnson County marked a significant shift in the political landscape of the region. Two years later, nearly 60% of the county’s voters supported Governor Laura Kelly’s re-election bid, and the Democratic delegations in the state House and Senate increased considerably. These gains have led Democrats to view Johnson County as a crucial battleground in the 2024 elections.
A Turning Point for Johnson County?
The key question now is whether these Democratic gains are a sign of a permanent shift in Johnson County or just a temporary break in the long-standing trend of Republican dominance. The answer lies in several factors, including changes in demographics, voter registration trends, and the evolving appeal of the Republican Party.
Johnson County’s population is becoming increasingly urban, college-educated, and affluent—demographics that tend to favor the Democratic Party. Additionally, industries that traditionally lean Democratic, such as education, healthcare, and scientific professions, now make up roughly 40% of the county’s employment base. As a result, the proportion of voters registered as Democrats has increased from 20% in 2000 to 32% today.
However, these changes in demographics alone do not fully explain the shifts in voting behavior. Despite the Democratic gains, the percentage of voters in Johnson County registered as Republicans has remained above 40%. What has changed is the Republican Party itself. It has struggled to offer candidates who appeal to moderates and those unaffiliated with either party.
The Appeal of Centrist Candidates
The 2018 gubernatorial race offers a clear example of this dynamic. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, defeated Kris Kobach by 5 points statewide. In Johnson County, Kelly’s margin of victory was a staggering 17 points. Similarly, in 2018, Democrat Sharice Davids unseated incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder in the race for Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, which includes Johnson County. Davids managed to cultivate a centrist image, which helped her hold onto the seat even after the district’s boundaries were redrawn to eliminate Democratic advantages.
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In 2016, Donald Trump resonated with centrist voters, securing majority support from independents and suburban voters nationwide, extending the Republican streak in Johnson County. However, four years later, Biden seized the ideological center, winning 64% of moderates and 54% of independents. His success in Johnson County, where he garnered an unprecedented 53% of the vote, underscored the importance of centrism in the region.
The Challenge for Kamala Harris
Johnson County’s evolving demographics suggest a supportive environment for Democrats, which bodes well for Kamala Harris as she eyes the 2024 election. However, the county’s history indicates that residents prefer centrist candidates. Neither Harris nor Donald Trump, at this point, are seen as centrists. Their vice-presidential picks in previous elections have primarily energized their core supporters, focusing on base maximization strategies rather than appealing to moderate voters.
Despite the track record of centrism in winning elections, candidates often face pressure from passionate partisans to adopt more extreme policy agendas. If Harris can resist these pressures and concentrate on moderate voters, she stands a strong chance of winning Johnson County. Her ability to appeal to the center could be crucial in determining whether she can replicate Biden’s success and perhaps even propel her to the presidency.
In conclusion, Johnson County’s shift toward the Democratic Party in recent years presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Kamala Harris. The county’s preference for centrist candidates suggests that Harris will need to navigate carefully to maintain and build upon the gains made by Biden in 2020. If she succeeds, Johnson County could once again play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of a presidential election.
