The US president has changed the game in a way nobody else has
Love him or loathe him, you must admit Donald Trump has done what no other world leader could achieve. He vowed to end the war in Ukraine swiftly, and while it hasn’t happened in a mere 24 hours, he seems to be on the brink of pulling off an extraordinary diplomatic feat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is heading to the United States with an offer of raw materials in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.
The world has long been desperate for an end to this bloody war. Ukraine’s sovereignty has been brutally undermined, with Russia seizing a fifth of its territory. The war has cost hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides, and its consequences have reverberated across Europe. The economic impact has been severe, particularly in Britain, where energy prices soared as a direct result of Russian aggression.
Trump’s intervention, however controversial, offers a glimmer of hope. While Western nations have backed Ukraine with military and financial aid, their support has been enough only to keep the country fighting—not to win decisively. Instead, Ukraine has been left in limbo: strong enough to resist, but too weak to reclaim its lost lands. The US alone has poured over $75 billion into Ukraine’s defence, while Britain has given over £12 billion. And still, there was no clear end in sight—until now.
Trump’s strategy: Pragmatic or perilous?
Many critics have condemned Trump’s seemingly contradictory actions—such as his recent move to align with Russia, Iran, and North Korea at the UN by refusing to place sole blame on Moscow for the war. But there may be more to his strategy than meets the eye. Some suggest Trump is cosying up to Putin only to outmanoeuvre him later. The Russian leader, perhaps sensing an opportunity, has reportedly offered tonnes of aluminium and rare earth minerals to sweeten the deal.
From a strategic standpoint, Trump’s actions are reminiscent of past political greats. Even Winston Churchill, revered for his steadfast leadership, was no stranger to political manoeuvring and behind-the-scenes deals. While Trump is no Churchill, his methods seem to be working. And at least he has restored Churchill’s bust to the White House—something the British Parliament, strangely, has been hesitant to celebrate.
Europe’s failure to properly fund its defence forces has been laid bare by this conflict. For too long, European nations have outsourced their security to the US, despite the fact that they have far more to lose should Russia continue its expansionist ambitions. Trump’s demands for increased European defence spending, once dismissed, now appear to be well-founded. With Britain set to increase its military budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP—and eventually 3 per cent—other European nations are following suit. Even Germany, previously hesitant to re-arm, is now planning a €200 billion investment in its military.
The cost of peace
Ending the war comes at a price. Some fear that allowing Putin to hold on to occupied territories will embolden him to strike again. Others argue that a partial peace would simply give Russia time to regroup and rearm. But Ukraine itself will have the final say in any settlement. If Zelensky agrees to the terms, it will mark a significant turning point. The threat of nuclear escalation remains a key concern, but ironically, nuclear deterrence may also be the very thing that prevents future wars.
France, recognising the shifting geopolitical landscape, has pledged to bolster Europe’s nuclear security. Emmanuel Macron has openly discussed the possibility of extending France’s nuclear umbrella over Europe, reinforcing deterrence measures that were once the sole domain of the US and UK.
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Had Ukraine retained its nuclear weapons instead of surrendering them under the Budapest Memorandum in 1996, Putin may never have dared to invade. Zelensky has hinted that Ukraine possesses the technical know-how to restart a nuclear programme if the West abandons it. This alone is enough to make Moscow and Washington sit up and take notice.
A defining moment for the world
Trump’s diplomatic gamble appears to be paying off. In just a few short weeks of his second term, both the Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict—the two biggest global crises—seem to be edging toward resolution. Whether this is by design or sheer force of personality remains unclear, but the fact remains: the world is closer to peace than it has been in years.
His ability to force change, even among long-standing allies, is evident. Before Keir Starmer’s upcoming visit to Washington, the UK’s new prime minister made the unexpected decision to increase defence spending to levels not seen since the Cold War. The US had demanded five per cent of GDP; Britain has committed to three per cent. Meanwhile, Germany is finally waking up to its role in European security, setting aside billions to modernise its armed forces.
Trump’s leadership may be unpredictable, but it is undeniably effective. He listens to figures like Elon Musk rather than traditional advisers, and his decisions can seem erratic. Yet here we are: the world on the brink of peace, and the European security order stronger than it has been in decades.
As Britain and the rest of the world adjust to four more years of Trump, it is best to acknowledge reality. He is a transactional leader, one who thrives on grand gestures. But if those gestures lead to the end of war in Ukraine, then perhaps—just perhaps—his unconventional approach was exactly what was needed.
