When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently attempted to greet a local steelworker in northern Ontario with a handshake, the encounter did not go as planned. Instead of a warm reception, the worker bluntly confronted Trudeau about his struggles to make ends meet despite steady employment. Trudeau responded by listing the achievements of his Liberal government aimed at supporting working families. However, the steelworker, unconvinced, replied, “I don’t believe you for a second,” adding, “I think you are only here for another year.” This exchange, captured on camera in late August, quickly went viral.
The incident encapsulated the public frustration Trudeau faces as his popularity continues to decline. Now in his ninth year as prime minister, Trudeau’s approval ratings have hit new lows. In September 2024, an Ipsos poll revealed that only 33% of Canadians approved of his leadership, with 67% disapproving—a four-point increase in disapproval since June. Moreover, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has overtaken Trudeau as the favored candidate for prime minister, with 45% of Canadians backing him compared to Trudeau’s 26%.
Amid growing discontent within his own party, some Liberal colleagues have urged Trudeau to step down. Yet, Trudeau remains defiant, surviving two no-confidence motions in Parliament. However, many political analysts believe that Trudeau’s declining domestic standing may be influencing his actions on the global stage, particularly his recent escalations with India.
Diplomatic tensions with India
Relations between India and Canada have reached a critical low, exacerbated by Trudeau’s allegations in September 2023 that Indian agents may have been involved in the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen. India vehemently denied these accusations, calling them “absurd.” Nonetheless, the tensions have continued to escalate, with Ottawa recently notifying New Delhi of its intent to question Indian diplomats as part of its investigation into Nijjar’s killing. India responded by withdrawing its High Commissioner, Sanjay Kumar Verma, and expelling six Canadian diplomats, including Acting High Commissioner Stewart Ross Wheeler.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement attributing Canada’s actions to “vote bank politics,” claiming that Trudeau’s government was using India as a scapegoat to win favor with Canada’s politically significant Sikh community, some of whom support the Khalistan separatist movement. The MEA accused Trudeau of pursuing a “political agenda” for narrow electoral gains, asserting that his government’s foreign policy decisions were being driven by domestic political troubles.
Domestic struggles and election setbacks
Trudeau’s falling popularity comes amid a series of electoral defeats. In September, his Liberal Party lost a by-election in Montreal to the Bloc Quebecois, a Quebec nationalist party, in a district long considered a Liberal stronghold. This defeat was particularly concerning, as it was viewed as a litmus test for the party ahead of the federal election scheduled for October 2025. Earlier in June, the Liberals also lost a Toronto seat they had held for 30 years to the Conservative Party, further signaling trouble for Trudeau’s leadership.
The parallels between Trudeau’s political trajectory and the recent downfall of the UK Conservative Party have not gone unnoticed. Darrell Bricker, a political scientist with Ipsos, drew a comparison between the two, stating that Trudeau’s leadership was “basically over,” much like the UK Tories, who were ousted from power in July 2024 after 14 years.
Once elected on a platform of change and strengthening the middle class, Trudeau is now facing a cost-of-living crisis that has left many Canadians struggling with unaffordable housing, soaring grocery prices, and a strained public healthcare system. Crime rates have also become a growing concern, further eroding public confidence in his leadership.
Losing support from the NDP
Compounding Trudeau’s challenges is the withdrawal of support from Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP), which had previously been keeping Trudeau’s minority government afloat through a confidence-and-supply agreement. The NDP’s withdrawal means that Trudeau’s government could now face confidence votes in Parliament, which, if lost, could trigger an early general election.
Jagmeet Singh, himself a supporter of the Khalistan separatist movement, has been critical of Trudeau, accusing the Liberals of being “too weak” to address the pressing issues facing Canadians. While the withdrawal of support does not automatically lead to an election, it raises the possibility of an early vote before the scheduled October 2025 election.
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Foreign interference allegations
Trudeau’s government has also faced criticism over its handling of foreign interference in Canadian elections. In April, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) accused India of attempting to meddle in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections—an accusation New Delhi dismissed as baseless. India has maintained that the real issue is Ottawa’s interference in India’s internal affairs, particularly its alleged support for pro-Khalistan activities within Canada.
In September, Trudeau testified before a public inquiry examining foreign interference in Canada’s electoral processes, as part of an ongoing investigation into meddling by foreign actors, including China and Russia. India has been added to this list, further straining diplomatic ties.
Justin Trudeau’s political troubles at home appear to be influencing his foreign policy decisions, particularly his confrontational stance toward India. As his approval ratings plummet and electoral defeats mount, Trudeau faces increasing pressure both domestically and internationally. With Canada’s relations with India deteriorating and a potential early election looming, the next year could prove decisive for Trudeau’s political future. Whether he can regain the trust of Canadian voters and stabilize relations with India remains to be seen.
