Haryana/Srinagar – October 7, 2024: Recent exit polls have sparked significant political discussions as they forecast a potential Congress return to power in Haryana after a decade, while predicting a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). The exit polls released on Saturday evening followed the conclusion of polling in Haryana and indicate a shifting political landscape in both regions.
Congress Poised for a Comeback in Haryana
In Haryana, most exit polls suggest that the Congress party is set to regain a clear majority in the 90-member Assembly, signaling a notable shift in the state’s political dynamics. If the predictions hold true, it would mark a significant return for the Congress, which last held power a decade ago.
Exit poll projections indicate that the Congress could win between 50 to 58 seats, a remarkable improvement from the 31 seats it secured in the 2019 elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which currently governs the state in alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), is predicted to win between 20 to 28 seats, showing a potential decline in its influence. The exit polls also suggest that up to 14 seats could be won by smaller parties and independents.
The implications of a Congress victory in Haryana extend beyond state politics; given the state’s proximity to the national capital, it could have broader ramifications for farm politics and the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The region has been a significant player in agricultural issues, especially in the wake of the 2020-21 farmer protests. The political environment in Haryana appears to be shifting towards a bipolar system, primarily between the Congress and the BJP, as parties like the Indian National Lok Dal and the JJP seem to be losing ground.
Historically, the Congress has had strong performances in Haryana, notably winning 67 seats in 2005, the highest it has ever achieved in the state. The Congress also performed well in the 1967 and 1968 elections, winning 48 seats each time, along with significant victories in 1972 and 1991.
Jammu and Kashmir’s Political Landscape
In stark contrast, exit polls for the J&K Assembly elections, conducted after a decade and the repeal of Article 370, indicate a hung assembly. With no party or pre-poll alliance projected to secure the 46-seat majority needed to govern, the National Conference-Congress alliance is likely to come closest, with predictions of winning between 40 to 48 seats, according to the India Today-CVoter exit poll.
Most other exit polls foresee a fragmented political landscape where the National Conference and Congress might edge ahead of the BJP but still fall short of a clear majority. The BJP is expected to maintain its influence primarily in the Jammu region, which accounts for 43 of the 90 assembly seats. However, the exit polls also forecast a decline in support for the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP), with smaller parties and independents potentially securing between 6 to 18 seats, which could be crucial for government formation.
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Political Reactions and Implications
The exit polls’ results have drawn mixed reactions from political leaders in both regions. In Haryana, a Congress victory could lead to a significant realignment of farm politics, especially given the state’s role in the broader agricultural discourse in India. The BJP, having struggled with the Jat-Scheduled Caste alliance, faces a critical test in retaining its support among OBCs, Punjabis, and upper castes.
In J&K, the predicted hung assembly raises questions about potential coalitions, reminiscent of past alliances. Given that no party is expected to reach the majority mark, the dynamics of post-election negotiations will be pivotal in determining the region’s governance.
As the political climate heats up ahead of the official counting of votes on October 8, 2024, the exit polls have set the stage for intense political maneuvering in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. While Congress appears poised for a resurgence in Haryana, the uncertain outcome in J&K presents a unique challenge, potentially reshaping the political landscape in both states. The elections, reflecting broader socio-political currents, will undoubtedly be scrutinized for their implications for future governance and policy directions in these crucial regions of India.
