Efforts to end the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas have become a high-stakes battle for survival, with both sides’ political futures on the line. The outcome of the conflict could determine the fate of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, whose leadership is directly tied to the terms under which the war ends.
The complexity of these negotiations, which have failed repeatedly, is one of the reasons why discussions of a permanent ceasefire have been deferred to the final stages of a plan outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden. His three-phase plan, announced on Friday, seeks an end to the conflict, the release of hostages, and the reconstruction of Palestinian territory. However, Biden acknowledged that transitioning from discussions on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to a lasting ceasefire will be “difficult.”
Political Stakes for Netanyahu and Hamas
For Netanyahu, the political stakes are high. His management of the war has been scrutinized, particularly his failure to secure the release of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas. The first phase of Biden’s plan involves the release of dozens of hostages, which would be a victory for Netanyahu, as it could mitigate domestic criticism. However, Hamas is unlikely to release its most politically sensitive hostages—such as women, the elderly, and the wounded—without guarantees that Israel won’t resume the war afterward.
Leaks in Israeli media suggest Netanyahu has told colleagues that Israel would retain the option to resume fighting, should Hamas not be “eliminated.” This is critical for Netanyahu, as his far-right coalition partners will likely demand nothing less. Without their support, he risks facing early elections and continuing his corruption trial, making it politically essential for him to keep all options open.
On the other side, Hamas leaders, particularly Yahya Sinwar, are likely to push for permanent ceasefire guarantees before releasing hostages. Previous ceasefire deals have collapsed over similar issues, and bridging the gap will depend on how much flexibility Netanyahu has with his hard-right allies and how far Hamas is willing to go to secure peace.
Netanyahu’s Struggle to Declare Victory
Netanyahu has publicly stated his goal of destroying Hamas’s “military and governing capabilities” to ensure they no longer pose a threat to Israel. While Israel has inflicted severe damage on Hamas’s military infrastructure, leaders like Sinwar and Mohammed Deif remain at large. Any deal that leaves them free in Gaza would be seen as a failure by Netanyahu’s critics.
The U.S. has acknowledged the challenge of eliminating Hamas entirely. A State Department spokesperson noted that while Hamas’s capabilities have been “steadily degraded,” the group remains a threat, and its complete eradication through military means is unlikely. Nevertheless, Israel appears determined to frame any resolution as a victory.
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Ceasefire Negotiations and Internal Pressures
The White House said on Monday that Biden had confirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the terms offered to Hamas, suggesting that the group’s refusal is the current obstacle to a deal. Netanyahu’s coalition partners, however, remain skeptical of any deal that leaves Hamas’s top leaders in place.
Military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari reassured Israelis that the country’s security could be maintained even if a ceasefire is agreed. Yet, the situation remains fragile. According to Yanir Cozin, a diplomatic correspondent with Israel’s military radio station, Netanyahu likely won’t end the war unless he can present it as a success. “A deal that leaves Hamas is a big failure,” Cozin noted, emphasizing that Netanyahu needs significant gains to maintain his government.
The Role of Hamas Leaders
Hamas is unlikely to agree to the exile or surrender of Sinwar and Deif, but internal divisions within the group are becoming more apparent. Some experts, including former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, believe that Netanyahu is playing a calculated game, moving forward only when certain that Sinwar will reject the terms.
In the meantime, the conflict continues, with tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by Hamas attacks on October 7 awaiting the next move. Many, like Yarin Sultan, a mother of three from Sderot, say they will not return home until Hamas’s top leaders are no longer free. Sultan, like others, is watching Netanyahu’s next steps closely, knowing that the war’s end could hinge on the fate of Sinwar and Deif.
