Reform UK has claimed another significant victory in local politics, seizing a council seat from Labour in St Helens, Liverpool, as support for Nigel Farage’s party continues to rise. The party triumphed in the Blackbrook ward by-election on Thursday night, with Reform’s Victor Floyd securing 546 votes, surpassing Labour’s Sally Yeoman, who garnered 460 votes.
This loss further underscores Labour’s ongoing struggles in local by-elections. Since Sir Keir Starmer’s resounding victory in the July General Election, the Labour Party has seen its fortunes decline, losing 25 councillors across 172 local by-elections. The party’s vote share has dropped by more than 8%, a worrying trend as it battles to maintain its grip on key local seats.
The defeat in St Helens follows a string of setbacks for Labour. In September, Labour lost a seat on Westminster Council to the Conservatives amid controversy over Sadiq Khan’s plans to pedestrianise Oxford Street. The Tories also gained a seat in Greenwich following a campaign against proposed police station closures. Since July 4, the Conservatives have gained 23 council seats, Reform UK has won six, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens have each secured one and two seats, respectively.
The results of Thursday’s by-elections across the UK paint a bleak picture for Labour, as Reform UK’s influence grows. In Barnsley and Stock in Essex, the Reform candidates finished second in their respective local polls, securing over 20% of the vote in each. While they did not win these seats, the party’s growing presence on the ballot papers cannot be ignored.
Reform UK’s rise is reflected in national polling as well. A recent survey conducted by Find Out Now on December 11, which sampled 4,694 British adults, revealed that 26% of respondents would back Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow. However, Reform UK is not far behind, with 25% of respondents indicating support for Farage’s party. The Conservatives trailed in third place, with only 23% of voters stating they would back Kemi Badenoch’s leadership.
The survey also showed the Liberal Democrats at 11% and the Greens at 9%, signalling a reshaping of the political landscape, as more voters gravitate towards parties outside the traditional two-party system.
Baroness Harriet Harman, the Labour peer and former MP for Camberwell and Peckham, has suggested that Reform UK could become a serious contender in the upcoming General Election. Harman expressed her concerns during an appearance on Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast, where she noted that Reform UK appeared to be gaining momentum with a clear, defined political message.
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“I feel quite conflicted about this because I don’t want to talk up Reform,” Harman confessed. “But I actually think that Reform are going to replace the Conservatives at the next election because they seem to have an argument and they seem to know what that argument is.”
Her prediction underscores the significant shift in voter sentiment, as Reform UK’s popularity surges while traditional parties like Labour and the Conservatives struggle to hold onto their support bases. The party, led by Nigel Farage, appears to be capitalising on widespread disillusionment with the establishment, drawing in a broad range of voters who feel their concerns are not being adequately addressed by the mainstream parties.
As Reform UK continues to gain traction, it remains to be seen whether the party can maintain its momentum heading into the next General Election. With Labour reeling from a series of by-election losses and Reform UK closing in on the Conservatives, the political landscape in the UK is becoming increasingly unpredictable. If the current trend continues, it could mark a pivotal moment in British politics, with Reform UK potentially positioning itself as a viable alternative to the traditional political parties that have long dominated the British political scene.
