The recent announcement by the Election Commission of India regarding the dates for the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections marks a significant milestone in the region’s political landscape. For the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, the return of electoral politics to Jammu & Kashmir signals a renewed engagement with democratic processes in a region that has experienced considerable political and administrative shifts.
One of the most notable developments is the seat-sharing arrangement between the National Conference (NC) and the Congress party. This alliance, while strategic, is not without its complexities. The NC has been allocated 51 seats, the Congress 32, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPM] and the J&K Panthers Party one seat each. This distribution reflects the current political realities in the region. For the Congress, which has seen a significant decline in its political influence since 2014, this partnership offers a chance to regain some ground, particularly in the Jammu region where most of its allocated seats are located. The exit of Ghulam Nabi Azad, a key Congress leader and former Chief Minister, had further weakened the party’s position, making this alliance crucial for its survival and relevance.
For the NC, the elections present an opportunity to reestablish itself as a dominant force in Jammu & Kashmir’s politics, particularly in the Kashmir Valley. Omar Abdullah, a prominent NC leader and former Chief Minister, has indicated a shift in his stance regarding contesting the elections, highlighting the pressure and significance of this electoral contest. His initial reluctance to participate, citing the post-Article 370 political environment, underscores the challenges the NC faces. However, the changing political dynamics seem to have prompted a reconsideration, signaling the party’s determination to play a central role in the region’s political future.
Despite the apparent unity, the NC-Congress alliance is fraught with contradictions. The NC has indicated that if elected, it may propose a resolution in the Assembly against the abrogation of Article 370. This stance, while symbolic, reflects the party’s continued opposition to the central government’s decision. However, the Congress, mindful of its broader national politics and the complexities involved, does not share this position. Managing these differences will be a significant challenge for the alliance, particularly if it comes to power. K C Venugopal, a senior Congress leader, has mentioned that a Common Minimum Programme will guide the alliance’s governance, a strategy that might help in bridging the ideological divides.
More Read
The history of alliances in Jammu & Kashmir’s politics serves as a cautionary tale. The BJP-PDP government, which was the last elected administration before the abrogation of Article 370, had also come together on the basis of a shared agenda that included the promise not to revoke the state’s special status. However, that alliance eventually collapsed, leading to the imposition of President’s Rule and the subsequent reorganization of the state into two Union Territories. This history adds a layer of uncertainty to the current NC-Congress partnership, as both parties will need to navigate the complexities of their alliance carefully.
Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the two major constituents of the last elected government in Jammu & Kashmir, appear to be struggling. The BJP’s decision to withdraw its first list of candidates shortly after its release, reportedly due to internal dissent, highlights the challenges it faces in maintaining unity within its ranks. The PDP, on the other hand, has seen a dramatic decline in its political fortunes. From a vote share of 22.67 percent in the 2014 assembly elections, it plummeted to just 8.48 percent in the 2024 general elections, with the party failing to secure any seats. The PDP’s decline reflects the broader challenges it faces in reestablishing its relevance in the post-Article 370 political environment.
As Jammu & Kashmir prepares for its first Assembly elections in several years, the return of politics to the region is a welcome development. While uncertainties remain, particularly with regards to the alliances and their ability to navigate the complex political landscape, the reengagement of the region with democratic processes is an unambiguous positive. It signals a step towards normalcy and offers the people of Jammu & Kashmir an opportunity to have their voices heard in shaping their future.
