Reform UK would secure the most seats in Parliament if a general election were held today, according to a striking new poll that highlights a dramatic shift in the British political landscape.
The More in Common survey, based on responses from over 16,000 people across the UK, suggests that Labour could lose as many as 246 seats—including 10 Cabinet ministers—with heavy losses across key regions such as the red wall constituencies, Scotland, and the Welsh Valleys.
The model, which uses multi-level regression and post-stratification techniques, projects Reform UK would win 180 seats with an implied vote share of 23.7%. In comparison, both Labour and the Conservatives would be tied with 165 seats each, with vote shares of 24.5% and 24.3% respectively—placing no party anywhere near an overall majority.
Among those potentially ousted from office are Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. The Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, is also projected to lose his Ilford North seat to an independent challenger, according to the model.
Though the next general election is not expected until 2029, the data paints a vivid picture of an electorate growing increasingly disillusioned. More in Common’s director, Luke Tryl, cautioned against interpreting the findings as a forecast, but noted that the voter coalition behind Labour’s landslide just last year has “splintered.”
“We are a long way from a general election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand,” Mr Tryl said. “But what we can say for certain is that as of today, British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level.”
He added: “Labour, having secured a historic victory, now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the Government’s early missteps.”
The data suggests that Labour’s vote is fracturing both to the left and right. This political realignment could see Nigel Farage’s Reform UK capturing voters in working-class heartlands that once formed the backbone of Labour support.
With May’s local elections approaching, all eyes will be on whether Reform’s momentum in opinion polls translates into tangible support at the ballot box. A particularly heated battle is expected in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury. Both Labour and Reform are expected to contest the seat fiercely.
Meanwhile, Mr Farage is strategically positioning Reform UK to appeal to traditional Labour voters by adopting a populist economic agenda. In a recent Sunday Times interview, he proposed nationalising British Steel and vowed to work closely with trade unions to help “reindustrialise Britain.”
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“If we are going to reindustrialise Britain,” he said, “then we have to realise that the trade unions and relationships with them are a very important part of it.”
His comments echo recent moves by steelworkers’ unions, who have called for government intervention in British Steel after negotiations with its Chinese owners, Jingye, collapsed. The Labour government has expressed willingness to nationalise the company, but officials have stressed that securing a private-sector partner remains critical due to the substantial investment required to modernise Britain’s steel industry.
While the poll does not predict the final outcome of the next general election, it serves as a powerful indicator of the volatility currently defining British politics. With voter loyalties in flux, party leaders on all sides face mounting pressure to reconnect with a public increasingly impatient for meaningful change.
