The United States and Russia are holding high-level talks in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a potential peace deal to bring an end to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
The meeting on Tuesday marks the first direct discussions between the two nations since the war began nearly two years ago. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is scheduled to meet US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in Riyadh this morning. However, neither Ukraine nor any European countries have been invited to participate in the talks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has strongly condemned the discussions, stating that his government will not recognise any agreements reached without its involvement. European leaders have also voiced their frustration at being excluded from the negotiations, warning that any peace deal lacking European input would be incomplete and potentially ineffective.
European concerns over exclusion
On Monday, European Union leaders gathered at the Elysee Palace in Paris for an emergency meeting that lasted over three hours. The discussions centred on devising a response to the talks in Riyadh, as European leaders scramble to develop a strategy amid growing concerns that the US may be preparing to shift its stance on Ukraine.
The fear among European officials is that the US, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, could be seeking a swift resolution that prioritises American interests while failing to provide sufficient security guarantees for Ukraine. There is also increasing anxiety over the possibility that the US might scale back its military commitments in Europe, a move that could leave the continent more vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has emphasised the importance of a strong security guarantee from the US as the only viable safeguard against further Russian incursions into Ukraine. Speaking after the emergency talks in Paris, he said, “A firm and credible security commitment from the United States remains the essential backstop that will deter Russia from launching another assault on Ukraine. Without it, Europe must seriously reconsider its own security framework.”
A secretive approach to peace talks
The decision to exclude Ukraine and key European allies from the negotiations has fuelled speculation over the true nature of the discussions. Some analysts suggest that Washington may be willing to accept a compromise that involves Ukraine ceding some of its territory to Russia in exchange for an immediate ceasefire. This, however, is a scenario that Kyiv has categorically rejected in the past, insisting that it will not agree to any territorial concessions.
Meanwhile, Russia is expected to push for an end to Western sanctions in exchange for halting hostilities. The economic impact of these sanctions has been severe, affecting key industries and limiting Moscow’s ability to fund its military operations. Lavrov is likely to advocate for a phased lifting of sanctions as part of any potential peace agreement.
Saudi Arabia’s role as the host of these talks is also raising eyebrows. Riyadh has positioned itself as a neutral mediator in global conflicts, and its growing diplomatic influence has made it a key player in negotiations between rival states. However, the absence of Ukraine from the talks is seen by many as an indication that the discussions may be more favourable to Russian interests than to those of Kyiv.
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What comes next?
For now, the details of the meeting remain undisclosed, and it is unclear whether the discussions will lead to any concrete agreements. The Biden administration has remained tight-lipped on the matter, only confirming that the talks are taking place. President Trump, on the other hand, has repeatedly stated that he could end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours” if re-elected, a claim that has been met with scepticism by both allies and critics.
Ukrainian officials have reiterated that any deal that does not include their direct participation will be deemed illegitimate. Speaking on Monday, President Zelensky’s chief advisor, Andriy Yermak, said, “Ukraine has fought too hard and sacrificed too much to allow its future to be decided behind closed doors without its presence. We will continue to resist any attempt to impose a settlement that does not align with our sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
As the world watches the developments in Riyadh closely, European leaders are preparing for all possible outcomes. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are reportedly considering alternative security arrangements should the US shift its commitments in the region. Meanwhile, NATO officials have indicated that they will continue to support Ukraine regardless of the decisions made in Saudi Arabia.
In the coming days, more clarity is expected to emerge regarding the results of the meeting and whether it will have any real impact on the ongoing war. Until then, tensions remain high as Ukraine and its allies brace for what could be a pivotal moment in the conflict’s trajectory.
