In a recent discussion on the dynamics of the U.S. elections, Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation America, commented that Washington D.C. is not ideal for observing the elections due to its strong Democratic lean. Speaking about the complexity of this election cycle, he highlighted significant demographic shifts, especially among younger male voters inclined toward Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.
“Washington D.C. is a terrible place to actually observe the elections because it is the most reliably Democratic constituency in the U.S., so it’s a bit of a bubble. But from reports coming from states like Nevada and Florida, where polls have opened, one thing to watch out for is turnout,” he said, noting that turnout patterns this year may be less predictable due to early voting trends and evolving voter priorities. Jaishankar added that while higher turnout has historically favored Democrats, some younger voters and men who previously supported Democratic candidates may switch allegiance this time, making the landscape difficult to forecast.
Swing States as Election Deciders
Jaishankar explained that the focus will largely fall on seven key swing states, which could sway the election outcome. He remarked, “If either candidate can win four or more of these states, they will likely secure victory. In the last two elections, minor shifts in a few thousand votes in swing states could have changed the entire outcome.” The close margins in these states, he said, could lead to delayed results, especially due to slower vote-counting protocols. He noted, “If Trump can secure even one of these traditionally Democratic states, the scales may tip significantly in his favor.”
Evolving voter demographics and divisive politics
Reflecting on voter demographics, Jaishankar remarked that the divide has become sharper over the years, with Democrats generally appealing to younger, urban, and more diverse constituencies, while Republicans have solidified their base among older, rural, and predominantly white voters. He observed shifts in this pattern, with some traditional Democrat-leaning groups like younger voters possibly moving toward Trump. “White suburban women, for example, remain key swing voters,” he said. This election’s divisive nature may further impact how these groups align.
The lack of foreign policy focus on India
Discussing foreign policy, Jaishankar said it was a positive sign that India had not surfaced as a prominent issue in the U.S. election discourse. “Foreign policy only tends to arise when there’s a problem that affects Americans directly, such as U.S. military interventions,” he explained. This election has instead focused on conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and tensions with China. Both candidates have, however, vaguely alluded to maintaining positive relations with India, though Jaishankar emphasized that actual policy shifts may depend on their domestic agendas.
Potential implications for India
On U.S.-China relations, Jaishankar highlighted that while competition between the two powers may have indirect impacts on India, both parties have refrained from providing specific policy details. Trade, immigration, democracy, and human rights may all see different approaches, depending on the candidate in power. He added, “A Trump win could mean tougher negotiations on tariffs and immigration, affecting visa policies for Indian citizens. Meanwhile, Harris may likely maintain continuity with the current administration’s approach but could prioritize progressive agendas over strategic considerations in her approach to India.”
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The role of Indian-American voters and donors
Indian-American voters, though generally Democrat-leaning, may not be as decisively influential in this election due to their smaller numbers in swing states, Jaishankar noted. “Indian-Americans in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania, although not enough to significantly affect outcomes, tend to vote Democratic, with about two-thirds favoring the party,” he said. However, some Indian-Americans, influenced by Trump’s outreach to India, may consider supporting him.
Jaishankar further commented on Vice President Kamala Harris’s cautious approach toward her Indian roots, which has drawn mixed responses from Indian-Americans. Despite her Indian heritage, he said, she has not emphasized policy ties with India, unlike Trump’s more vocal stance. Indian-Americans also wield influence as donors, with significant contributions going to both candidates, making them vital contributors to campaign funding.
Complications in the India-U.S. relationship
Jaishankar acknowledged that while U.S.-India relations remain on a generally positive trajectory, recent issues like U.S. investigations in Bangladesh have added some complications. “These issues won’t necessarily be a top priority for a new administration, but it’s important to address potential differences early on,” he remarked. He believes the next administration, whether Trump’s or Harris’s, will need to find ways to advance the relationship without letting minor disagreements overshadow progress.
