By Max Hastings
Ukraine is on the verge of being sold out by the West. If this assertion seems blunt, consider the harsh realities: Russia now controls one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, and despite the courageous efforts of Ukraine’s military, they have been unable to expel the invaders. As the war drags on, Vladimir Putin’s forces are acquiring more advanced weaponry, while Ukraine’s military is struggling to maintain its defensive capabilities.
The most troubling factor, however, is the shift in Western resolve. Europe, grappling with economic and energy challenges, is increasingly desperate for an end to the conflict—under any terms short of Ukraine’s total capitulation. In the United States, the upcoming 2024 election presents additional uncertainties. Should Donald Trump return to the presidency, with his known admiration for Putin, it is widely assumed that Ukraine will be abandoned. Even if Kamala Harris ascends to the White House, her administration may also push for a negotiated settlement, as Washington sees no viable path to Ukrainian victory despite having already provided $175 billion in aid.
Meanwhile, global attention has shifted elsewhere. The outbreak of violence in the Middle East has overshadowed Ukraine’s plight. The U.S. and other Western nations are focusing on conflicts involving Israel and Iran, and weapons shipments to Kyiv have slowed. While Russia continues to advance, Ukraine is increasingly sidelined in international discourse.
Russia’s Military Gains
One significant factor contributing to Ukraine’s dire position is Russia’s improved military capabilities. Putin has bolstered his forces with ammunition from North Korea, which is sold at a fraction of the cost of Western ordnance. Additionally, Russia has reportedly set up a factory in China to produce Garpiya-3 attack drones, benefiting from Chinese expertise. There are also reports that hundreds of North Korean technicians are assisting Russia with advanced rocketry provided by Pyongyang.
Furthermore, suspicions have arisen among Ukrainians that Russia is exploiting illicit Starlink internet connections to enhance its surveillance and command capabilities, despite Elon Musk’s denials of aiding the Russian war effort. Meanwhile, Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, which are contributing to the destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As a harsh winter approaches, millions of Ukrainians will face the prospect of living without electricity or heat, a severe blow to national morale.
Adding to the frustration, the U.S. has imposed strict limits on how Ukraine can use American-provided weapons, denying Kyiv the ability to strike back at Russian targets in a similar manner.
Fading Western Support
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s recent tour of Europe to promote his “Victory Plan” secured little more than supportive rhetoric. NATO’s new head, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, reiterated the importance of supporting Ukraine for collective security, but behind closed doors, European leaders are focused on restoring access to cheap Russian energy. The flow of European munitions to Ukraine, which was never particularly robust, has slowed even further due to sluggish production rates in both Europe and the U.S.
Economic sanctions against Russia remain porous, with many Western nations showing little enthusiasm for enforcing them strictly. In Ukraine, discussions of victory and reclaiming lost territory are gradually giving way to acknowledgments that negotiations may be inevitable.
Even Ukraine’s limited military successes have done little to change the overall trajectory of the war. A surprise Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region this past summer briefly captured hundreds of square miles, but it amounted to little more than a symbolic blow to Putin’s prestige. The incursion may have even played into Putin’s narrative of NATO aggression against Russia, further solidifying his grip on power at home.
A Grim Outlook for 2024
As winter approaches, it is clear that 2024 has been a strong year for Putin and a tragic one for Zelenskiy. During a recent visit to Croatia, Zelenskiy warned: “Weakness of any of our allies will inspire Putin. That’s why we’re asking [the allies] to strengthen us, in terms of security guarantees, in terms of weapons, in terms of our future after this war. In my view [Putin] only understands force.”
Zelenskiy is right, but convincing Western leaders and their weary populations to continue supporting Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult. With domestic issues and a sense of fatigue over the ongoing conflict, many Western nations seem inclined to seek a way out, even if it comes at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
A leading American strategist predicted early in the war that while Russia may not be able to fully conquer Ukraine, it could render the country so unlivable that no sane person would want to invest in or rebuild it. This grim scenario is becoming more plausible as Ukraine’s economy teeters on the edge of collapse. Millions of Ukrainian refugees remain abroad with little intention of returning anytime soon.
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The Unlikely Prospect of NATO Membership
The best security guarantee for Ukraine would be NATO membership, but this remains an improbable outcome. Putin would refuse any settlement that includes the possibility of Ukraine joining the alliance, and several European NATO members, including Germany, would likely veto such a move. Additionally, the U.S. is wary of committing to a security arrangement that could escalate tensions further with Russia.
Ukraine will justifiably reject any peace deal that doesn’t come with robust Western military guarantees, but crafting a workable arrangement that both sides can accept remains a distant prospect.
The war in Ukraine began because Moscow refuses to tolerate a democratic, independent neighbor on its doorstep. Putin seeks to install a puppet government in Kyiv, and Ukrainians have sacrificed tens of thousands of lives to prevent this outcome. It is shameful that the West’s lack of resolve is allowing Russia to come closer to achieving this goal.
The West has failed in its leadership. The Ukrainians have shown extraordinary courage and determination, but they have been let down by allies lacking the steel for a prolonged conflict. If the West truly wants to prevent a Russian victory, it must dramatically increase weapons shipments and financial aid to Kyiv. Anything less would be a shameful betrayal.
