After primacy: U.S. military options in contemporary east asia
For decades, the United States maintained an unchallenged military dominance in East Asia, using its power to deter conflict, support regional stability, and secure the free flow of goods and people across the region’s vital trade routes. This strategy, rooted in expeditionary power projection, relied on the U.S. military’s unmatched technological edge and operational freedom. However, the evolving geopolitical and military landscape in East Asia now demands a fundamental re-evaluation of this approach.
The shift in military balance
Since 1945, the U.S. has relied on robust defense alliances and its ability to deploy overwhelming military force to address conflicts across East Asia. This strategy was underpinned by a significant technological and operational advantage over adversaries, particularly the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This superiority allowed the U.S. to act with confidence, addressing regional security challenges without facing significant trade-offs in cost, risk, or global operational capacity.
However, the rise of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed the military equation. Over the past two decades, the PLA has become a professionalized, well-equipped force capable of contesting U.S. actions across a wide range of scenarios. Advances in missile technology, cyber capabilities, and naval power have enabled China to challenge U.S. military primacy in the region.
This shift means that the U.S. can no longer rely solely on its traditional strategies to maintain regional stability and protect its interests. Instead, policymakers must confront a new reality where military dominance is no longer assured, and strategic trade-offs are unavoidable.
Adapting to the new reality
The erosion of U.S. primacy does not render military force obsolete in defending U.S. and allied interests in East Asia. It does, however, require a shift in how that force is deployed and used. The traditional model of expeditionary power projection—where the U.S. assembles and operates forces with near-total freedom—may no longer be viable in the face of China’s regional advantages and U.S. fiscal constraints.
Continuing with past practices while awaiting additional resources or relying on a technological breakthrough is unlikely to yield success. Instead, the U.S. must explore alternative strategies and operational concepts that account for the changing balance of power. This includes developing capabilities that can operate effectively in contested environments, leveraging alliances and partnerships more strategically, and prioritizing innovation in areas such as cyber warfare, autonomous systems, and space capabilities.
Strategic considerations
China’s growing military strength is not the only factor influencing U.S. strategy in East Asia. Domestic fiscal realities, including budget constraints and competing priorities, limit the resources available for military commitments. Additionally, the U.S. must consider the political and reputational costs of its actions in a region where China’s economic influence is significant.
To navigate these challenges, U.S. policymakers must adopt a more flexible and nuanced approach. This may involve recalibrating defense alliances to share the burden of regional security, strengthening the deterrent capabilities of allies such as Japan and South Korea, and deepening partnerships with Southeast Asian nations.
Furthermore, the U.S. must enhance its ability to respond to non-traditional security threats, including cyberattacks, economic coercion, and grey-zone tactics employed by China. These measures will require a whole-of-government approach that integrates military, diplomatic, and economic tools to protect U.S. interests effectively.
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Stimulating strategic innovation
The loss of military primacy in East Asia presents an opportunity for the U.S. to rethink its strategic approach. Policymakers and military planners must explore options that go beyond traditional power projection to ensure the U.S. remains a credible force in the region. This includes investing in new technologies, redefining operational concepts, and fostering greater collaboration with allies and partners.
Ultimately, the goal is not to replicate the dominance of the past but to develop a sustainable strategy that balances military capability with fiscal responsibility and political prudence. By adapting to the realities of a multipolar East Asia, the U.S. can continue to play a leading role in shaping the region’s future.
Conclusion
The era of uncontested U.S. military primacy in East Asia has ended, but the need for a strong American presence remains critical. As China continues to assert its influence, the U.S. must embrace innovation, strengthen alliances, and adopt a more flexible approach to safeguard its interests and promote stability in one of the world’s most dynamic regions.
