PARIS, 5 December (Reuters) – French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is widely anticipated to step down on Friday following a dramatic no-confidence vote in the National Assembly. The vote, supported by both far-right and leftist lawmakers, marks the second significant political crisis in France in just six months, further destabilising an already fragile government.
Barnier, a seasoned politician and former EU Brexit negotiator, will become the shortest-serving prime minister in France’s modern history. The confidence vote loss is the first of its kind since 1962 when Georges Pompidou’s government faced a similar defeat.
Political stalemate over unpopular budget
The tipping point for Barnier’s government came with his controversial push for a draft budget aimed at slashing €60 billion (£52 billion) from France’s deficit. His decision to bypass a parliamentary vote and force the measure through ignited outrage across the political spectrum. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally denounced the budget as disproportionately targeting working-class citizens, while leftist factions argued it failed to address growing economic inequalities.
The fallout has been a severe blow to President Emmanuel Macron, whose authority has been steadily eroded by recent political missteps. Macron’s ill-judged decision to call a snap parliamentary election ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympics has left his centrist government grappling with a fractured parliament incapable of reaching consensus.
Macron under pressure
While Macron is shielded from direct removal due to his presidential mandate lasting until 2027, calls for his resignation are growing louder. Critics accuse him of exacerbating the political crisis with poorly timed decisions and a lack of strategic foresight. His standing both domestically and internationally has taken a hit, leaving him a weakened figure in the European political landscape.
The timing of the crisis could hardly be worse for France. The lack of a stable government risks stalling vital legislative processes, including the passage of the 2025 budget. Although constitutional provisions allow the government to avert a U.S.-style shutdown, the political instability has already rattled financial markets. Earlier this week, French borrowing costs momentarily surpassed those of Greece, a nation traditionally viewed as a higher-risk borrower.
Impact on the european union
France’s turmoil comes as the European Union grapples with its own set of challenges, including the recent collapse of Germany’s coalition government. The dual crises have raised concerns about the bloc’s ability to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, particularly with the return of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looming large.
Trump’s upcoming visit to Paris for the unveiling of the restored Notre Dame Cathedral adds another layer of urgency for Macron. The president is keen to appoint a new prime minister ahead of Saturday’s event to project an image of stability on the international stage.
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Challenges for the next prime minister
Whoever succeeds Barnier will face an uphill battle in steering France through this turbulent period. The hung parliament remains deeply divided, and any incoming leader will need to bridge ideological chasms to pass critical legislation, including the stalled budget. Adding to the difficulty, no new parliamentary elections can legally take place until July, locking the government into its current impasse.
Uncertain future
France’s political uncertainty is already having real-world consequences. Investors are growing increasingly wary of French sovereign bonds and equities, fearing prolonged instability could hamper economic growth. The government’s ability to address pressing issues, from inflation to public sector reform, hangs in the balance.
As the year draws to a close, France finds itself at a crossroads. The nation must navigate a precarious path to restore governmental stability and public trust. Macron’s leadership will be under intense scrutiny as he attempts to salvage his presidency amid one of the most turbulent periods in recent French history.
Barnier’s resignation, should it occur as expected, will not mark the end of the crisis but rather the beginning of a new and uncertain chapter for France and its political future.
