In a recent interview with Saudi Al-Hadath channel, Security and Strategic Affairs Analyst Faiz Al-Asmar suggested that Iran’s delay in responding to recent events has resulted in a significant loss of the element of surprise, thereby strengthening Israel’s position in the ongoing regional tensions.
Al-Asmar’s analysis centers on the recent deaths of prominent figures in the Middle East conflict, including Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr. He argued that the postponement by Iran and Hezbollah in retaliating for these deaths has inadvertently allowed Israel and its ally, the United States, to bolster their defenses and strategic positions. “In terms of the situation on the ground, it can be said that Iran and Hezbollah’s delay in responding to the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr have so far allowed Israel and the US to strengthen their position on the ground and use all means available,” Al-Asmar explained.
The analyst highlighted the arrival of a warship in the region as evidence of the enhanced defensive measures Israel and the US have undertaken. This development, according to Al-Asmar, has given the two allies an opportunity to fortify their positions and deploy defensive strategies aimed at repelling any potential attack. “All of this has given Israel and the US the opportunity to increase their strength and deploy the necessary defense measures to repel the attack,” he noted.
Al-Asmar further elaborated that the delay has resulted in a significant strategic disadvantage for Iran, as the element of surprise—often deemed crucial in modern warfare—has been lost. “Iran has essentially lost the most significant element in modern warfare, which is the element of surprise,” he asserted.
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In addition to the tactical implications, Al-Asmar pointed out the psychological and political dimensions of the situation. He suggested that Iran’s public statements about retaliation are part of a broader propaganda effort aimed at creating anxiety and fear within Israel. “The statements of the leadership in Iran are part of a propaganda war designed to sow anxiety and fear in the Israeli public,” he remarked.
The analyst described Iran’s dilemma in responding to the recent events. On one hand, Iran is under pressure to retaliate against Israel to restore its honor in front of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and its own populace. On the other hand, there is a concern that an inadequate response might invite further escalation and exacerbate the situation. “I believe, as I mentioned, that Iran’s response to the death of Ismail Haniyeh and the death of Fuad Shaker from Hezbollah is under heavy pressure. On one hand, Iran wants to retaliate against Israel and restore its honor in front of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and its own people. On the other hand, it fears that its response will not be sufficient, and therefore, it wants to define the nature of its response carefully,” Al-Asmar explained.
Regarding the timing and coordination of any potential response by Iran and Hezbollah, Al-Asmar noted that the exact nature of their actions remains uncertain. He indicated that the response might be timed carefully, taking into account tactical considerations and the geographical distances involved. “It has not been decided. It is possible that the response will be carried out simultaneously, taking into account the difference in time and distance. There are considerations from the ground, tactical considerations, and assessments of the situation,” he said.
Al-Asmar concluded the interview by emphasizing the potential impact of any escalation. He warned that significant attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli targets, such as military headquarters or strategic infrastructure, could prompt a decisive Israeli response. This, in turn, could escalate the conflict and potentially draw Beirut into a broader confrontation akin to the recent Gaza conflict. “Any target that strikes Israel will affect the current rules of the game. Israel is bombing villages and towns in southern Lebanon daily, which means that the rules of the game are not clearly defined,” Al-Asmar concluded.
