Israeli ministers reportedly convened this week to discuss a classified plan focused on the potential division of Syria into provincial regions, a proposal that was first revealed by Middle East Eye (MEE) in December. According to Israeli media, Defence Minister Israel Katz led the meeting, which took place before an upcoming discussion with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ministers are said to have examined the role of Turkey in Syria and their concerns regarding the influence of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed Jolani.
During the meeting, Israeli officials reportedly revisited a controversial plan to break Syria into separate cantons to protect the rights and security of various ethnic groups, including the Kurdish and Druze populations. The concept was initially detailed by MEE in December, shedding light on Israel’s long-standing interest in reshaping the Syrian geopolitical landscape.
The plan, as outlined in Israeli reports, proposes a division of Syria into provincial regions, a move that Israel believes could protect ethnic minorities while limiting external threats. Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy and infrastructure minister, is said to have suggested that the plan be considered at an international conference, likely convened by Israel. However, Israeli politicians acknowledge the significant resistance such a proposal would face within Syria, where the prospect of foreign involvement in the division of the country is highly contentious.
This initiative reflects Israel’s concerns over Syria’s future alignment, particularly regarding its relations with Iran and Hezbollah, two allies that have supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the ongoing civil war. According to regional security sources, a previous iteration of this plan—before the downfall of Assad—sought to establish military and strategic ties with the Kurds in Syria’s northeast and the Druze in the south, while leaving Assad in control of Damascus, backed by Emirati funding and influence. The Israeli strategy was aimed at severing Syria’s ties with Iran and Hezbollah, as well as limiting Turkey’s influence in the northwest of the country, a region where HTS and other Turkish-backed groups had strongholds.
The plan to divide Syria was also mentioned in a speech by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar in November, where he emphasised the importance of building alliances with minorities, particularly the Kurds and Druze, both within Syria and Lebanon. He stated that Israel needed to establish natural alliances with other minority groups in the region, acknowledging the political and security implications of such relationships. “We must look at developments in this context and understand that in a region where we will always be a minority, we can have natural alliances with other minorities,” Saar remarked.
Despite Israel’s interest, the response from Syria’s Druze community has been far from supportive. In an exclusive interview with MEE, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, leader of Syria’s Druze, condemned Israel’s involvement in Syria, calling for the country to preserve its territorial unity. Hijri strongly rejected the idea of foreign intervention, stressing that the stability of Syria must be maintained without external interference.
The proposed division of Syria also reflects Israel’s growing concerns over Turkey’s expanding influence in the region. In December, Turkey’s backing of HTS and other rebel factions that contributed to the fall of Assad raised alarms within Israeli security circles. On Monday, an Israeli government commission stated that Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria, particularly if it supports a Sunni Islamist force in Damascus.
The situation remains fluid, as Israeli officials continue to adjust their strategy in response to the shifting dynamics in Syria. On the ground, Israel has maintained a military presence in areas it captured during the conflict, particularly in the Golan Heights, a disputed Syrian plateau that Israel has occupied since 1967. Israeli security sources have indicated that they will retain their positions in these areas until they deem the situation “stable.”
The ongoing discussions within Israel about Syria’s future highlight the complexity of the regional dynamics, with various external actors—including Iran, Turkey, and Israel—shaping the trajectory of the Syrian conflict. Israel’s continued focus on the division of Syria underscores the importance it places on the strategic balance of power in the region, especially in light of the growing influence of Turkey and other actors in the Syrian theatre.
