John Kelly’s Comments Could Suppress Trump Voter Turnout in Crucial States, Says Ex-Bush Pollster
A former George W. Bush campaign strategist has warned that recent remarks by retired General John Kelly criticizing former President Donald Trump may have a significant impact on conservative voter turnout in closely contested states. Matt Dowd, who served as Bush’s chief strategist during the 2000 election, compared Kelly’s comments to the infamous “October Surprise” of the 2000 Bush campaign when a revelation about Bush’s decades-old DUI arrest affected voter motivation, particularly among Republicans.
In a bombshell interview released earlier this week, General Kelly, who served as Trump’s White House Chief of Staff, spoke candidly about his deep disapproval of Trump. Kelly condemned Trump’s treatment of the military and his lack of regard for the sacrifices made by service members and their families. His remarks come on the heels of another report by The Atlantic, which revealed that Trump had reneged on a promise to cover the funeral expenses for a slain Army private. Together, these revelations have intensified public scrutiny of Trump’s character, especially regarding his relationship with the military.
Matt Dowd explained that while these revelations are unlikely to sway die-hard Trump supporters to vote for Democratic candidates like Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, they could demotivate conservative voters in key battleground states. “It casts a light on the base corrupt, you know, disgusting nature of Donald Trump who does nothing except for self,” said Dowd. “And a person in the military, especially someone that’s given a sacrifice, lost a limb, lost a loved one, it shines such a bright light on who Donald Trump is, and he knows that.”
Historical Parallel: The 2000 DUI Revelation
Dowd drew a parallel between Kelly’s revelations about Trump and the last-minute scandal during Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign, when news of Bush’s DUI arrest 24 years earlier came to light just days before the election. Although this incident didn’t cause a significant shift in voters switching parties, it did dampen enthusiasm among conservative and Republican voters. “What it’s likely to do is the same thing that happened with the DUI,” Dowd said, referring to how voter motivation can be suppressed when negative information about a candidate is revealed.
In 2000, Dowd explained, three internal polls were conducted in the days following the DUI revelation in Ohio, Florida, and Michigan—three key battleground states. The findings were alarming: “There was about a 6% or 7% drop among conservatives and Republicans to vote for George W. Bush. And it took Michigan from a tie-state to a state we were losing in a matter of 72 hours. It took Ohio from a comfortable state to a state we were barely winning. And it took Florida from a state that we were winning by one or two to a state that was tied. All of that happened over the course of three or four days.”
The DUI revelation had a pronounced impact not on changing votes but on suppressing voter enthusiasm. According to Dowd, a similar scenario could play out now in the wake of Kelly’s comments about Trump, particularly among military families and voters who prioritize character and leadership.
Impact in Key Battleground States
Dowd suggested that Kelly’s criticisms, along with potential statements from other military officials, could be a game-changer in states where the race is already close. “What Kelly’s comments, and further comments from other military officials, could do is make a huge difference in a state where the polls are tied,” Dowd explained. He emphasized that these remarks might demotivate conservative voters, particularly those with military ties, who may feel disillusioned by Trump’s treatment of veterans and his disregard for military service.
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Kelly’s damning critique adds to the growing list of concerns about Trump’s character, which could resonate deeply in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, where the margins of victory can be razor-thin. Military families, veterans, and conservatives who value patriotism and military service could be especially influenced by Kelly’s statements, potentially leading to decreased turnout.
The Significance of Military Voters
The military and veteran community represents a significant voting bloc, especially in states with large military populations, such as Florida and North Carolina. Trump has previously enjoyed strong support from this group, but Kelly’s remarks could erode that base of support. Dowd suggested that if military voters are less motivated to cast their ballots, it could alter the electoral landscape in these key states.
Conclusion
While General John Kelly’s comments are unlikely to convert Trump supporters into Democratic voters, they may have a crucial effect in suppressing conservative voter turnout in battleground states. As Matt Dowd pointed out from his experience during the 2000 Bush campaign, negative revelations about a candidate can demoralize their base, leading to a measurable decline in voter enthusiasm. If Kelly’s words resonate with military families and veterans, it could shift the balance in closely contested states, ultimately affecting the outcome of the 2024 election.
