Russia’s once-overwhelming artillery advantage over Ukraine has significantly diminished, with Russian forces now firing approximately 1.5 rounds for every Ukrainian shell, Western officials have revealed. This marks a stark contrast to earlier phases of the war, during which Russian artillery often outpaced Ukraine’s firepower by ratios of five to one or even higher.
The levelling of the artillery balance has been attributed to several factors, including logistical challenges within Russia, Ukrainian countermeasures, and Western support for Ukraine’s ammunition supplies.
Factors reducing russia’s artillery edge
Western officials, speaking under the condition of anonymity, outlined a “wide variety of factors” behind the change. Key issues include:
- Defence Production Strains: Limitations on Russia’s ability to produce sufficient artillery rounds.
- Logistical Disruptions: Difficulties in transporting ammunition to the frontlines due to reliance on rail networks.
- Ukrainian Drone Strikes: Successful strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian and North Korean ammunition stockpiles inside Russian territory.
- Western Aid: Supplies of ammunition from Ukraine’s allies have bolstered its capacity to respond.
Despite these setbacks, Russia has compensated with a massive increase in its deployment of glide bombs, which officials said are being used “to devastating effect” along the frontline.
Heavy costs for russian advances
While Russia continues to gain ground in certain areas, these advances come at an extraordinarily high cost in terms of casualties. One Western official described the battlefield as “very Somme-esque,” drawing a comparison to the brutal conditions of the First World War’s Battle of the Somme, which saw massive loss of life.
The official highlighted that Russia suffered its highest single-day casualty toll on 28 November, with 2,030 troops killed or injured. This figure marks the first time daily casualties have exceeded 2,000.
The average daily casualty rate for Russian forces throughout November also surpassed 1,500 for the third consecutive month, reaching 1,523 personnel. These numbers underscore the intensity of the fighting and the human toll on Russian forces.
Moscow and Kyiv Remain Tight-Lipped on Casualty Figures
Both Russia and Ukraine maintain secrecy over their respective casualty figures, with Moscow frequently dismissing Ukrainian and Western estimates. The Kremlin has not published updated data on its losses, while Ukraine remains similarly cautious about revealing the scale of its own personnel losses.
Glide bombs and strategic shifts
To offset its diminishing artillery advantage, Russia has leaned heavily on glide bombs, which allow strikes to be delivered with high precision from longer distances. Officials described this shift as a “massive increase” in usage, highlighting the devastation caused by these weapons.
While the use of glide bombs helps to maintain Russia’s offensive capabilities, it also reflects the limitations on traditional artillery, which had previously been a cornerstone of its military strategy.
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Western support bolsters ukraine
Western nations continue to provide significant material support to Ukraine, including ammunition and advanced weapons systems. This aid has been crucial in sustaining Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances and retaliate effectively on the battlefield.
Ukrainian forces have also ramped up their drone capabilities, targeting key logistical and ammunition supply points within Russia. These strikes have not only disrupted Russian operations but also inflicted substantial damage on stockpiles, including those supplied by allies such as North Korea.
The war’s broader implications
The evolving dynamics on the battlefield illustrate how logistical challenges, technological advancements, and external support are reshaping the conflict. The reduced artillery gap reflects broader shifts in the war, as both sides adapt to changing circumstances and seek to maintain momentum.
As the conflict grinds on, the human toll continues to rise, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces suffering heavy losses. The war’s scale and intensity underscore the need for renewed efforts to find a path to peace, even as fighting shows little sign of abating.
For now, the balance of power on the battlefield remains fluid, with each side striving to adapt and outmanoeuvre the other in a conflict that has already exacted a devastating cost.
