Israel may defeat Hamas and Hezbollah – but it is losing the real war and its longer-term security
From the Israeli government’s perspective, the wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon appear to be progressing as planned. Israeli forces have taken control of most of Gaza, with the northern regions under steady clearance. Discussions of Jewish settlers moving into these areas and the long-term garrisoning of Gaza by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are gaining traction.
In Lebanon, Israel has inflicted significant blows to Hezbollah, targeting its leadership and dismantling its weapon caches. However, warnings to Lebanese civilians suggest that any resumption of hostilities will invite severe repercussions not only against Hezbollah but also the broader Lebanese population.
While these efforts bolster short-term security, they come at a significant cost. In the West Bank, Israeli settlements continue to expand, often accompanied by crackdowns on Palestinians. Thousands have been detained, and the death toll among Palestinians rises, reinforcing perceptions of an apartheid system.
Erosion of international standing
Israel’s global standing has taken a severe hit. Although unwavering support from the United States and backing from allies like the UK provide immediate diplomatic cover, this cannot obscure the growing international criticism. Demonstrations across major Western cities, including London, signal a changing public attitude. Tens of thousands gather regularly to voice support for Palestinian rights, and global reports from human rights organisations like Amnesty International add to the scrutiny.
Historically, Israel was lauded as a nation of resilience and innovation, a beacon of democracy born from the ashes of the Holocaust. The 1967 Six-Day War further cemented this image, portraying Israel as a courageous underdog against formidable adversaries. However, the ongoing conflict has significantly altered this narrative. The widespread destruction in Gaza, the humanitarian crisis, and allegations of war crimes have shifted perceptions, especially across Europe and the Global South.
The human cost and Its consequences
For Israelis near the border regions, the conflict remains a source of significant displacement. Despite lulls in fighting, many have yet to return to their homes, reflecting lingering fears of instability. Conversely, displaced Lebanese have shown defiance, quickly returning to their communities despite warnings. Hezbollah, though damaged, continues to project resilience, framing Israeli withdrawals as symbolic defeats.
This scenario recalls historical parallels. Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon aimed to neutralise Palestinian resistance but instead catalysed the rise of Hezbollah. By 1990, heavy Israeli losses led to a withdrawal, and subsequent incursions, including the 2006 war, failed to dismantle the group. This cycle of intervention and resistance has perpetuated instability without achieving long-term security.
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Long-term implications
While Israel’s military superiority remains uncontested, the human and political costs of its strategies pose significant challenges. Prolonged warfare strains the IDF, reliant heavily on reservists who require respite and reorganisation. Simultaneously, the destruction in Gaza has exacerbated humanitarian conditions, fostering resentment among Palestinians that is unlikely to subside.
Israel’s actions are also shaping a future of intensified resistance. The current generation of young Palestinians, witnessing the devastation, is likely to become a source of sustained opposition. This generational impact suggests that Israel’s security will remain precarious, with the seeds of future conflicts already sown.
A diminished global role
Beyond the immediate conflict zones, Israel faces a diminished global reputation. Once celebrated for making the “desert bloom,” the country is increasingly seen as contributing to destruction and despair. The growing perception of Israel as a pariah state reflects a broader shift in international attitudes, with consequences for its diplomatic and economic ties.
In conclusion, while Israel’s military campaigns may yield tactical victories, the broader war for security and legitimacy appears to be slipping from its grasp. The humanitarian fallout, coupled with growing global condemnation, ensures that the road ahead will be fraught with challenges. Israel must reckon with the reality that its current path may lead to an insecure future, both within its borders and on the global stage.
